Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:34:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fc1…3b05 crypto 105 markets active 2d ago coverage 66d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$7 (-3%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate30%31W / 74L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 80% −$5
weather 20% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-27.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -14.7% -22.9% 44% 33% -17.0%
≤30d 70 -15.4% -23.4% 33% 26% -6.1%
≤90d 105 -19.4% -27.0% 30% 24% -14.3%
all 105 -19.4% -27.0% 30% 24% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.0% 24% -14.3%
10% -34.0% 20% -22.5%
15% -40.4% 20% -30.0%
20% -46.2% 18% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

66d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses31 / 74
Open positions0
Markets (closed)105 / 105
History coverage66d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 105 Trades
no open positions (46 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $3 −$2 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $14 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 -6%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$2 +157%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $16 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -16%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 11? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 -30%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $64,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -76%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $2 $0 +17%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$4 +397%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1 $0 -10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $2 $0 -20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -94%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 7? Jun 08 $2 +$5 +228%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Bitcoin reach $62,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $3 $0 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9PM ET Jun 06 $1 $0 -27%
Will Bitcoin dip to $61,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $15 +$2 +16%
Will Bitcoin reach $69,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 −$2 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $2 +$2 +108%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 2? Jun 02 $1 +$4 +422%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 2? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -90%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -86%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 30? May 29 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 73,800 on May 29, 12PM ET? May 29 $6 −$6 -93%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 28? May 27 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 27 $2 −$2 -75%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 27 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 May 25-31? May 26 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? SELL Up 10¢ $1 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? SELL Down 84¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 16? BUY Up 28¢ $3 2d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 16? BUY Down 68¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? SELL Up 92¢ $14 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? SELL Down 7¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 7¢ $1 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Down 7¢ $0 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 88¢ $14 3d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? SELL Up 1¢ $0 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? SELL Down 98¢ $3 4d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 14? BUY Up 56¢ $2 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 14? BUY Down 33¢ $1 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? SELL Up 100¢ $3 5d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? SELL Down 0¢ $0 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 13? BUY Up 37¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down on June 13? BUY Down 51¢ $1 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 5d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $17 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? SELL No 70¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $16 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 13? BUY No 59¢ $1 6d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 on June 10? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 198 history records