Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:28:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
4F 0x4fc3…a1b0 crypto 465 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10,992 (-2%) realized −$10,992 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate61%285W / 180L
Whale WR75%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,174per market
Trades / day25.4pace
Fees−$202est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$439
7 days−$1,015
14 days−$1,015
30 days−$4,317
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 76% −$4,465
world 7% −$174
other 5% −$5,409
sports 5% −$431
politics 4% −$29
economics 2% +$1
finance 1% −$15
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% +$4
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -8.6% -17.3% 84% 0% -19.3%
≤30d 155 -3.8% -13.0% 85% 8% -11.8%
≤90d 335 -2.6% -11.8% 70% 6% -10.7%
all 465 -3.1% -12.3% 61% 5% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.3% 5% -11.3%
10% -20.7% 2% -19.8%
15% ← realistic here -28.4% 2% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 1% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 75% (≥$1,604) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$129 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$10,992
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses285 / 180
Whale WR (big bets)75%
Est. fees paid−$202
Open positions0
Markets (closed)465 / 465
History coverage127d ⚠
Avg bet$1,174
Trades / day25.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 465 Trades
no open positions (11 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $596 −$596 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $572 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $554 +$5 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $558 +$10 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $541 +$16 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $521 +$20 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $483 +$39 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $471 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $470 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $460 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $460 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 18 $450 +$4 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $431 +$8 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $410 +$20 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 18 $420 +$4 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $426 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $442 −$17 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 14 $615 −$600 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $502 +$25 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 02 $1,282 −$1,280 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 02 $1,271 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 02 $1,251 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 02 $1,232 +$25 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 02 $1,209 +$12 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 02 $1,201 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 02 $1,182 +$22 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 02 $972 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 02 $1,115 +$56 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 02 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 02 $1,101 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 02 $1,086 +$11 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 02 $1,051 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 02 $1,061 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 02 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 02 $1,001 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 02 $990 +$10 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 30 $25 −$24 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 30 $30 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 30 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 30 $28 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET May 30 $23 +$4 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET May 30 $20 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 30 $1,006 −$1,000 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET May 29 $4 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 29 $3 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET May 29 $3 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET May 29 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET May 27 $72 −$72 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET May 27 $66 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 26 $3,114 −$3,100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $596 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $572 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $554 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $558 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $541 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $521 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $483 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $471 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $470 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $460 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $460 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $450 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $431 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $410 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $420 6h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $426 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 91¢ $13 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $20 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? SELL No 92¢ $392 17h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $21 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 95¢ $421 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $615 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $502 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1,282 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,271 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1,251 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1,232 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $61 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,148 15d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1,201 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records