Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T14:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4fc3…3af9 weather 90 markets active 2h ago coverage 43d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1,371 (+3%) realized +$1,374 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate91%79W / 8L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$589per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,667now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$209
7 days+$489
14 days+$798
30 days+$1,389
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$1,278
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +4.2% -5.7% 100% 10% -5.8%
≤30d 57 -2.2% -11.5% 95% 4% -6.7%
≤90d 87 -4.8% -13.9% 91% 6% -7.2%
all 87 -4.8% -13.9% 91% 6% -7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 6% -7.2%
10% -22.1% 1% -16.1%
15% -29.6% 1% -24.2%
20% -36.5% 1% -31.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$1,060) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$24 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.73 per $1 lost it wins $7.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$2,667
Realized+$1,374
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses79 / 8
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)87 / 90
History coverage43d
Avg bet$589
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 87 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? No 99¢ 100¢ $1,355 $1,362 +$7 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? No 99¢ 99¢ $860 $853 −$7 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? No 91¢ 90¢ $455 $452 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? Jun 19 $1,309 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,207 +$148 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1,257 +$49 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,201 +$9 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1,251 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,190 +$35 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $1,201 +$26 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? Jun 15 $1,217 +$62 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1,034 +$79 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1,055 +$63 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,127 +$5 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1,008 +$46 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,055 +$73 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1,000 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $801 +$11 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1,209 +$34 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 8? Jun 09 $806 +$8 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 8? Jun 08 $1,169 +$39 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1,108 +$61 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 7? Jun 07 $804 +$2 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 6? Jun 06 $800 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 6? Jun 06 $709 +$30 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 5? Jun 05 $1,160 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 5? Jun 05 $688 +$20 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 4? Jun 04 $1,154 +$6 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 4? Jun 04 $655 +$33 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 3? Jun 03 $1,143 +$12 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 3? Jun 03 $640 +$15 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 2? Jun 02 $631 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1,127 +$16 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1,122 +$4 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 1? Jun 01 $621 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 31? May 31 $1,096 +$26 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 31? May 31 $563 +$57 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 30? May 30 $1,060 +$37 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $558 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on May 29? May 29 $521 +$38 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 29? May 29 $1,036 +$23 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 28? May 28 $512 +$10 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on May 27? May 27 $425 +$8 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 27 $504 +$99 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on May 27? May 27 $506 +$5 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 26? May 26 $493 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 25? May 25 $408 +$16 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 25? May 25 $488 +$18 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on May 24? May 24 $479 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on May 24? May 24 $400 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 20? BUY No 91¢ $457 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 20? BUY No 99¢ $860 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $1,321 1h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,355 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? SELL No 100¢ $1,355 20h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 19? BUY No 99¢ $1,309 20h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 88¢ $1,207 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,210 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 96¢ $1,257 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? SELL No 100¢ $1,257 2d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,251 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 17? BUY No 99¢ $1,201 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? SELL No 100¢ $1,225 2d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 16? BUY No 97¢ $1,190 3d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 16? BUY No 98¢ $1,201 3d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $1,217 6d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? SELL No 100¢ $1,118 6d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 93¢ $1,034 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1,133 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 94¢ $1,055 7d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $1,055 7d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $1,127 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1,128 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $1,008 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? SELL No 100¢ $1,009 8d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 11? BUY No 93¢ $1,055 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $1,000 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $812 9d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? SELL No 100¢ $1,243 9d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 10? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,667.32 · official $2,670.78 (match) · 174 history records