Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

4F 0x4fc6…0994 sports 20 markets active 1h ago coverage 9d

RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge⚠ Small sample

! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$865 (+33%) realized +$882 · open −$17

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +56% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +35% what you keep after slip

Net edge+35%after slip

Net WR57%break-even

Win rate57%8W / 6L

Drawdown22%max

Avg bet$133per market

Trades / day3.9pace

Fees−$26est.

Kalshi-fit60%portable

Net worth$617now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$557

7 days+$1,274

14 days+$1,274

30 days+$1,274

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +57%

net ROI/market (all)+40.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	14	+55.6%	+40.8%	57%	57%	+62.6%
≤30d	14	+55.6%	+40.8%	57%	57%	+62.6%
≤90d	14	+55.6%	+40.8%	57%	57%	+62.6%
all	14	+55.6%	+40.8%	57%	57%	+62.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover3.9 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to20%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+40.8%	57%	+62.6%
10%	+27.3%	57%	+47.0%
15%	+15.0%	57%	+32.8%
20%	+3.8%	57%	+19.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +78% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +56% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +45% → late +67% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$231 vs −$95 · ×2.42 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.22 per $1 lost it wins $3.22

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage

Net worth$617

Realized+$882

Unrealized−$17

Win rate (resolved)57%

Wins / losses8 / 6

Est. fees paid−$26

Open positions4

Markets (closed)14 / 20

History coverage9d

Avg bet$133

Trades / day3.9

Drawdown22%

Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 4 History 14 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	Portugal	51¢	52¢	$328	$331	+$3 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$191	$197	+$7 (+3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$100	$75	−$25 (-25%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo?	Yes	2¢	2¢	$15	$13	−$2 (-13%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	Jun 17	$151	+$409	+271%
Spread: France (-1.5)	Jun 16	$208	+$311	+150%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	Jun 16	$68	+$58	+86%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	Jun 16	$29	−$25	-86%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	Jun 15	$199	−$196	-99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$164	+$372	+226%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$203	−$163	-80%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$34	−$31	-92%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	Jun 14	$90	−$88	-98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	Jun 13	$130	+$189	+145%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	Jun 13	$72	−$70	-98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	Jun 13	$110	+$120	+109%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	Jun 12	$99	+$211	+213%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5)	Jun 11	$121	+$176	+146%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 2 DR Congo?	BUY Yes	2¢	$15	58m
Spread: Portugal (-1.5)	BUY Portugal	51¢	$333	1h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Spread: Argentina (-1.5)	BUY	26¢	$151	12h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	SELL Over	100¢	$126	13h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	99¢	$53	13h
Spread: France (-1.5)	SELL France	89¢	$34	13h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	SELL Yes	1¢	$4	13h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	53¢	$68	23h
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal?	BUY Yes	7¢	$29	23h
Spread: France (-1.5)	BUY France	39¢	$208	26h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY	34¢	$194	35h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?	BUY Yes	55¢	$199	36h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) AND Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5	BUY	18¢	$136	47h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$536	2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	30¢	$164	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	10¢	$41	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	0¢	$2	2d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	2¢	$34	2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	35¢	$90	2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	BUY Yes	48¢	$203	2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13?	BUY Yes	17¢	$72	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	96¢	$59	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	93¢	$76	3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	39¢	$130	4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12?	BUY Yes	47¢	$110	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	99¢	$108	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	95¢	$35	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	93¢	$45	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	86¢	$56	4d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?	SELL Yes	77¢	$66	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $616.62 · official $616.62 (match) · 49 history records