Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:24:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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4F 0x4fc6…afa2 sports 308 markets active 1h ago coverage 80d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$798 (-6%) realized −$795 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%149W / 156L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day24.5pace
Fees−$240est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$150now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$88
7 days−$5
14 days−$338
30 days−$1,839
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$982
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-14.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -2.7% -12.0% 47% 47% -9.9%
≤30d 154 -23.7% -30.9% 40% 40% -30.9%
≤90d 305 -5.1% -14.1% 49% 49% -15.7%
all 305 -5.1% -14.1% 49% 49% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover24.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.1% 49% -15.7%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 48% -23.8%
15% -29.9% 47% -31.2%
20% -36.7% 45% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$42 vs −$47 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

80d coverage
Net worth$150
Realized−$795
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses149 / 156
Est. fees paid−$240
Open positions3
Markets (closed)305 / 308
History coverage80d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day24.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 305 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 48¢ 48¢ $51 $51 +$0 (+0%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Athletics 53¢ 52¢ $51 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 36¢ 34¢ $51 $49 −$2 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $52 −$51 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $52 −$51 -98%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $26 +$14 +55%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $52 −$51 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $31 −$31 -99%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $51 +$19 +37%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $52 +$67 +128%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $52 +$32 +63%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 12 $52 −$51 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 12 $52 −$51 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 11 $21 −$1 -6%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 11 $52 −$51 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $52 −$51 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $52 −$51 -99%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $52 +$77 +149%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $52 +$83 +160%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 10 $52 +$44 +86%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $52 +$45 +87%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $52 −$51 -98%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $52 −$51 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 10 $52 +$47 +91%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 10 $52 +$49 +94%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $65 +$61 +95%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 10 $52 +$46 +90%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $52 −$51 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 09 $52 +$67 +129%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $52 −$8 -15%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 09 $52 +$44 +85%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 08 $52 −$51 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 08 $52 −$51 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 07 $52 −$51 -99%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 07 $52 +$51 +99%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Miami Marlins Jun 07 $52 +$46 +90%
New York Mets vs. San Diego Padres Jun 07 $52 −$51 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $52 −$51 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 07 $52 −$51 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 06 $52 +$39 +75%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Texas Rangers Jun 06 $52 −$51 -99%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 06 $52 +$40 +77%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $52 −$51 -98%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $52 +$50 +97%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 05 $52 −$51 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $52 −$51 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 04 $52 +$39 +75%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 03 $52 −$51 -98%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 03 $52 −$51 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 03 $52 −$51 -99%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $52 +$59 +114%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $10 35m
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $10 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $10 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $10 3h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 37¢ $10 4h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $10 5h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $10 6h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 53¢ $10 7h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 36¢ $10 8h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 35¢ $10 10h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 53¢ $52 27h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $10 32h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $10 33h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $10 35h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $10 37h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 50¢ $10 39h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $20 42h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $20 42h
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $10 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $10 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $10 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $13 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 59¢ $13 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $10 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 49¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $10 2d
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles BUY Baltimore Orioles 54¢ $10 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 35¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $150.09 · official $150.11 (match) · 2169 history records