trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -94% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | Jun 14 | $11 | +$3 | +29% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET | Jun 14 | $20 | −$4 | -18% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | +$1 | +21% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET | Jun 14 | $11 | −$10 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET | Jun 14 | $11 | −$10 | -95% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET | Jun 14 | $16 | +$11 | +72% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET | Jun 14 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? | Jun 14 | $5 | +$23 | +442% |
| Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -98% |
| Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $5 | −$5 | -97% |
| Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? | Jun 13 | $10 | −$10 | -98% |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | Apr 12 | $5 | $0 | -3% |
| Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 12 | $5 | +$6 | +126% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $74,000 April 6-12? | Apr 12 | $10 | −$10 | -96% |
| Will Cameron Young win the 2026 Masters tournament? | Apr 12 | $5 | −$2 | -39% |
| Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? | Apr 12 | $20 | +$9 | +46% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 12 | -18.4% | -26.2% | 33% | 33% | -25.3% |
| ≤30d | 12 | -18.4% | -26.2% | 33% | 33% | -25.3% |
| ≤90d | 17 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 35% | 35% | -17.7% |
| all | 17 | -11.1% | -19.6% | 35% | 35% | -17.7% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -19.6% | 35% | -17.7% |
| 10% | -27.3% | 29% | -25.5% |
| 15% | -34.3% | 24% | -32.7% |
| 20% | -40.7% | 18% | -39.3% |