Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:49:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4F 0x4fcb…5281 politics 27 markets active 1h ago coverage 83d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 27L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$344per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$4
politics 25% −$3
sports 21% −$3
culture 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 18 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
all 27 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$922) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$0 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)27 / 27
History coverage83d
Avg bet$344
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 27 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 17 $14 $0 -0%
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 17 $70 $0 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $955 −$1 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $945 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? May 23 $59 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $42 $0 -1%
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 May 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 21 $41 $0 -0%
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $63 $0 -0%
Will Atlanta United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? May 20 $982 $0 -0%
Will Revolut have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? May 20 $916 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 19 $52 $0 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 19 $970 −$1 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 19 $12 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 19 $922 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 18 $935 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $43 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be between $100B and $200B at market close May 18 $882 $0 +0%
Will the New Orleans Saints win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 18 $945 −$2 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $155 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 31 $76 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $25 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 26 $45 $0 -0%
Will Kendrick Lamar be the top Spotify artist for 2026? Mar 26 $64 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 26 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $14 48m
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $70 56m
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $28 1h
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $11 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $954 1h
Will Phoenix Suns win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $939 1h
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $14 1h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $943 2h
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $16 2h
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $945 2h
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? SELL No 100¢ $59 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? SELL No 95¢ $41 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $40 25d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $23 25d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $12 25d
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? BUY No 95¢ $19 25d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 SELL No 100¢ $13 25d
Will Antonio Villaraigosa win the California Governor Election in 2026 BUY No 100¢ $25 25d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $40 27d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 98¢ $19 27d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $16 27d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? SELL No 98¢ $11 27d
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $25 27d
Will Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? BUY No 98¢ $30 27d
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 89¢ $10 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $63 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $15 28d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $27 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 82 history records