Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:19:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fcb…e4c3 crypto 76 markets active 3d ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$5 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate46%35W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$81
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$11
other 28% +$60
crypto 27% −$60
sports 6% −$4
politics 5% −$7
finance 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +5.9% -4.1% 43% 29% -11.7%
≤30d 47 -12.9% -21.2% 47% 32% -26.0%
≤90d 75 -3.2% -12.4% 45% 32% -12.4%
all 76 -2.1% -11.5% 46% 33% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 33% -12.3%
10% -19.9% 22% -20.7%
15% -27.7% 18% -28.3%
20% -34.8% 17% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses35 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage132d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $47 −$5 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $6 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $6 +$4 +66%
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -7%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $10 −$2 -15%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +54%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -48%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 31 $10 +$2 +24%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 30 $18 +$1 +5%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 29 $7 +$1 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $5 +$1 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $53 −$7 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $6 −$1 -17%
Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switz May 24 $6 $0 -4%
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? May 24 $5 −$1 -13%
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? May 24 $8 $0 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $28 −$5 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 23 $13 −$13 -100%
Trump kiss by May 31? May 23 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in May? May 23 $12 +$2 +17%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $8 +$1 +13%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $6 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET May 22 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET May 22 $1 +$1 +70%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 22 $4 $0 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 21 $8 −$1 -18%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 21 $10 +$1 +7%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May? May 20 $4 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 20 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 20 $10 +$6 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET May 20 $9 +$3 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 20 $4 −$1 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 20 $9 −$2 -20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 20 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET May 19 $3 +$2 +70%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 24¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 31¢ $8 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 70¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $6 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 88¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? SELL Yes 49¢ $10 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 52¢ $9 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $5 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $6 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 61¢ $4 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $5 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 51¢ $4 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 39¢ $3 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $6 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $5 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 75¢ $6 17d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 18d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $11 19d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $10 19d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? SELL No 88¢ $7 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? SELL No 74¢ $6 20d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 65¢ $5 20d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 64¢ $5 20d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? BUY No 77¢ $7 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 71¢ $10 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $5 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 217 history records