Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T04:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fcf…3a4d other 121 markets active 2h ago coverage 138d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$571 (+0%) realized +$571 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate20%24W / 96L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,018per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$534now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$12
14 days−$16
30 days−$32
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 34% −$97
politics 34% −$49
sports 22% +$765
economics 3% −$5
world 3% −$26
culture 3% −$27
crypto 1% −$5
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 10% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 57 -19.2% -26.9% 11% 2% -8.7%
all 120 -3.8% -13.0% 20% 8% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 8% -9.1%
10% -21.3% 8% -17.8%
15% -28.9% 8% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 6% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
58% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,447) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -18% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$10 · ×6.31 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.59 per $1 lost it wins $1.59
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$534
Realized+$571
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses24 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)120 / 121
History coverage138d
Avg bet$1,018
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 120 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $534 $534 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $391 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $732 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,483 −$2 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $1,326 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 13 $1,769 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $3,279 −$4 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $757 −$1 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,762 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $671 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $994 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $2,275 −$3 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $4,208 −$5 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in May? Jun 03 $261 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 03 $327 +$1 +0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $397 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $291 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $343 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $3,166 −$3 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 21 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 21 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $879 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $926 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 08 $958 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 08 $906 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 08 $936 −$1 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $959 −$2 -0%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June May 06 $900 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 02 $873 −$1 -0%
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? May 02 $983 −$1 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April? May 02 $269 +$1 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? May 02 $296 +$1 +0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $316 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $361 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 22 $694 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $3,272 −$3 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $1,847 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $2,055 −$2 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 10 $1,687 −$2 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 08 $1,469 −$1 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 07 $1,423 −$1 -0%
Based FDV above $1B one day after launch? Apr 07 $76 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Mar 30 $7 −$7 -100%
Warriors vs. Suns Mar 30 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Michigan Wolverines (-9.5) Mar 30 $1,114 +$1,206 +108%
LoL: DN SOOPers Challengers vs DRX Challengers (BO5) - LCK Challengers Mar 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Lightning vs. Hurricanes Mar 27 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $391 1h
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 100¢ $391 2h
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in June? BUY No 100¢ $534 2d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $731 4d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $732 4d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $871 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $873 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $933 5d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $934 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $904 5d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $905 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $828 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $829 6d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $755 11d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $757 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $804 11d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $805 12d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $670 14d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $671 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $992 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $994 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $690 14d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $691 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $992 15d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $994 15d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $397 18d
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $397 18d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $290 21d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $291 21d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $343 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $534.02 · official $534.02 (match) · 338 history records