Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:55:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4fd5…feb0 sports 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$901 (+9%) realized +$889 · open +$12
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate54%73W / 62L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$197now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$224
7 days+$833
14 days+$228
30 days+$986
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$1,116
other 27% −$86
crypto 0% −$20
world 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 60 +17.4% +6.2% 50% 48% +14.8%
≤30d 135 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 50% -0.6%
≤90d 135 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 50% -0.6%
all 135 +9.1% -1.3% 54% 50% -0.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.3% 50% -0.6%
10% -10.8% 44% -10.1%
15% -19.4% 39% -18.8%
20% -27.3% 33% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$39 · ×1.2 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$197
Realized+$889
Unrealized+$12
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses73 / 62
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions8
Markets (closed)135 / 147
History coverage20d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 37¢ 38¢ $74 $75 +$1 (+1%)
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals Yes 24¢ 52¢ $24 $52 +$28 (+121%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $28 $18 −$9 (-34%)
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $12 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-19%)
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assists Yes 19¢ 22¢ $10 $11 +$2 (+18%)
Arda Güler: 1+ goals Yes 23¢ 18¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-22%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $12 $3 −$8 (-71%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 47 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $68 +$80 +118%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $51 +$49 +96%
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) Jun 20 $50 −$50 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $134 +$49 +37%
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $49 +$32 +67%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$44 +217%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $473 +$58 +12%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $40 −$5 -12%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $65 −$65 -100%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $87 +$77 +90%
Spread: Colombia (-2.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $93 +$157 +169%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $50 +$40 +80%
Jude Bellingham: 1+ goals Jun 17 $6 +$27 +426%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $31 +$69 +222%
Declan Rice: 1+ goals Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $74 −$74 -100%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $90 +$115 +129%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Anis Hadj Moussa: 1+ goals Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $159 +$111 +70%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 16 $62 +$38 +62%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $34 −$4 -11%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $80 +$20 +24%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $27 +$23 +85%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $50 +$77 +156%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $12 −$12 -100%
Spread: IR Iran (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $150 −$150 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $56 −$56 -100%
Alex Baena: 1+ goals Jun 15 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +96%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 +$30 +150%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $18 +$32 +186%
Benjamin Nygren: 1+ assists Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Draw at halftime? Jun 15 $51 +$49 +96%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $14 +$31 +221%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $56 +$64 +113%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $56 +$44 +79%
Kai Havertz: 2+ goals Jun 14 $28 +$72 +257%
Spread: Germany (-4.5) Jun 14 $28 +$54 +194%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $72 +$42 +59%
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27? Jun 14 $59 $0 -1%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $80 +$44 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 49m
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 57m
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $2 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $0 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 46¢ $46 1h
Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $1 1h
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals BUY Yes 23¢ $12 1h
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals BUY Yes 24¢ $12 1h
Hakan Çalhanoğlu: 1+ assists BUY Yes 19¢ $10 1h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $100 1h
Spread: Brazil (-3.5) BUY Brazil 50¢ $50 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) SELL Brazil 100¢ $183 1h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $1 4h
Scott McTominay: 1+ goals BUY Yes 9¢ $0 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $134 4h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 73¢ $0 4h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) BUY Brazil 51¢ $51 4h
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $45 5h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $49 10h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY 45¢ $68 15h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY 30¢ $31 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $531 28h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 89¢ $473 29h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 36¢ $35 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY 31¢ $20 31h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $40 32h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $65 36h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 52¢ $87 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $196.82 · official $196.85 (match) · 331 history records