Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:10:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fd7…682c crypto 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (88 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$28 · open +$20
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate52%17W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day88.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$36
world 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (88 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)+0.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% -13.2%
≤30d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% -13.2%
≤90d 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% -13.2%
all 33 +10.9% +0.4% 52% 52% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover88.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.4% 52% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 42% -21.5%
15% -18.0% 39% -29.1%
20% -26.1% 36% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$34 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized−$28
Unrealized+$20
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses17 / 16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)33 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day88.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Down 9¢ 50¢ $5 $27 +$22 (+450%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 0¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 21 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$24 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 21 $104 −$33 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$34 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$54 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$18 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$20 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$23 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $53 −$36 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$13 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$115 +434%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $79 −$44 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$8 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$16 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$37 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$21 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 21 $31 +$32 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$5 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 21 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$22 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 21 $77 −$25 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$10 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 +$25 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $5 38m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 0¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 77¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $26 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.83 · official $29.84 (match) · 99 history records