Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:58:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fd9…a49e sports 247 markets active 2h ago coverage 97d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 97d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$743 (-1%) realized −$714 · open −$29
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate47%110W / 126L
Whale WR44%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$406per market
Trades / day33.4pace
Fees−$1,577est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$972now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$57
7 days+$329
14 days+$381
30 days+$321
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$593
world 6% +$103
other 4% +$160
weather 3% −$227
finance 3% −$284
politics 2% −$290
crypto 1% −$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -5.9% -14.9% 62% 25% +0.7%
≤30d 65 -4.4% -13.5% 40% 9% -8.0%
≤90d 221 -2.9% -12.1% 46% 11% -10.4%
all 236 -2.8% -12.0% 47% 11% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 11% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 8% -19.1%
15% -28.1% 6% -27.0%
20% -35.2% 4% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 44% (≥$570) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -2% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$57 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

97d coverage
Net worth$972
Realized−$714
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses110 / 126
Whale WR (big bets)44%
Est. fees paid−$1,577
Open positions9
Markets (closed)236 / 247
History coverage97d ⚠
Avg bet$406
Trades / day33.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 236 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $368 $361 −$7 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 20¢ $184 $197 +$13 (+7%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $133 $119 −$14 (-11%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 12¢ $117 $117 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $73 $71 −$2 (-2%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $53 $52 −$1 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 26¢ $34 $26 −$7 (-22%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $21 $15 −$5 (-26%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $18 $13 −$5 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 20 $528 +$70 +13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $8 −$8 -97%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $111 +$4 +4%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $16 −$4 -27%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $7 −$3 -45%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the Mexico vs South Ko Jun 18 $3 −$1 -20%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $525 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 17 $347 +$1 +0%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: South Africa vs Pakistan Jun 17 $56 +$1 +2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs Bangladesh Jun 17 $26 +$6 +24%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: New Zealand vs Sri Lanka Jun 16 $489 +$135 +28%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $93 +$3 +3%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $6 $0 -3%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: India vs Pakistan Jun 14 $242 +$2 +1%
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan Jun 13 $444 +$124 +28%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Australia vs South Africa Jun 13 $563 +$9 +2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 13 $30 −$1 -2%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $158 +$10 +6%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $207 +$93 +45%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $9 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $180 −$32 -18%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 27°C on June 8? Jun 08 $165 −$27 -17%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $5 $0 +2%
ODI Series West Indies vs Sri Lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 05 $24 +$2 +7%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 05 $107 −$3 -3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Netherlands Jun 03 $187 −$3 -2%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 03 $180 −$41 -23%
T20 Scotland Tri-Series, Women: Scotland vs Bangladesh Jun 02 $235 −$11 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 01 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 01 $142 −$6 -4%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 1? Jun 01 $10 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Royal Challengers Bengaluru win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 31 $80 +$3 +3%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Gujarat Titans May 31 $1,021 +$1 +0%
T20 Blast: Sussex vs Middlesex May 31 $36 −$36 -100%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 31 $1,784 +$467 +26%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $6 −$3 -51%
Will the highest temperature in London be 28°C on May 30? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 30? May 29 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 17°C on May 29? May 29 $47 −$1 -3%
Will Gujarat Titans win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 29 $84 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 29? May 28 $12 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C or higher on May 28? May 28 $45 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Ma May 28 $8 $0 -2%
Will Rajasthan Royals win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $462 −$2 -0%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $1,714 −$456 -27%
Will Sunrisers Hyderabad win the 2026 Indian Premier League? May 27 $499 +$17 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $354 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $5 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $49 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan SELL India 100¢ $189 1h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $23 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $15 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $7 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $44 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $316 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $13 8h
ODI Series India vs Afghanistan: India vs Afghanistan BUY India 88¢ $111 8h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 12¢ $117 9h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 12¢ $8 18h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $69 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $37 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 18h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $17 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $20 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $28 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $11 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $15 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $14 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 19h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 19h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $971.79 · official $971.89 (match) · 3500 history records