Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:45:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fdb…af66 sports 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$42 (-6%) realized −$69 · open +$27
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate48%13W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day14.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$136now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% −$29
sports 33% +$29
world 5% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -5.4% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.2%
≤30d 27 -5.4% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.2%
≤90d 27 -5.4% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.2%
all 27 -5.4% -14.5% 48% 37% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 37% -13.2%
10% -22.6% 33% -21.5%
15% -30.1% 26% -29.1%
20% -37.0% 19% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$11 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$136
Realized−$69
Unrealized+$27
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses13 / 14
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 30
History coverage4d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day14.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Yes 87¢ 99¢ $104 $118 +$14 (+14%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 Over 31¢ 100¢ $6 $18 +$12 (+221%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $9 +$6 +67%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $7 +$8 +124%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $8 +$2 +31%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $20 +$2 +10%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $52 +$18 +36%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $5 −$1 -16%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $11 −$6 -54%
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? Jun 28 $11 −$7 -62%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $15 −$1 -7%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $62 +$25 +40%
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $39 +$4 +11%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 27 $49 +$1 +3%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $9 +$6 +68%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $19 −$19 -99%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $16 +$4 +24%
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $9 −$8 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $59 +$1 +2%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $12 +$14 +120%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $41 −$11 -27%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $20 −$2 -12%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 25 $7 −$6 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $66 −$65 -99%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $11 +$33 +307%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $19 −$8 -44%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $6 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $104 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 91¢ $20 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 22¢ $4 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 25¢ $5 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $8 2h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 73¢ $52 3h
Colombia to score first vs. Portugal? BUY Yes 35¢ $11 3h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 27¢ $11 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 48¢ $14 3h
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $7 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 97¢ $87 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 79¢ $44 6h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $11 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $15 11h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 59¢ $9 11h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs WBT (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY WBT $2 14h
Valorant: QT DIG∞ vs IGZIST (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY IGZIST 32¢ $10 15h
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 97¢ $49 23h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 75¢ $15 23h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 44¢ $9 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 76¢ $31 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 63¢ $19 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 24h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 28¢ $9 25h
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 25h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 42¢ $9 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136.34 · official $120.96 · 62 history records