Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T07:04:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4fdb…bc28 world 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$35 (+0%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate50%52W / 51L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$14
7 days+$15
14 days+$29
30 days+$35
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 75% +$35
other 22% +$3
politics 1% −$9
crypto 1% +$1
sports 1% +$1
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$1
weather 0% +$3
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.6% -12.7% 50% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 32 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 6% -9.1%
≤90d 38 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 5% -9.3%
all 103 -1.1% -10.6% 50% 9% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 9% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 4% -18.0%
15% -26.9% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 1% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +1% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.55 per $1 lost it wins $1.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses52 / 51
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage481d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 100¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $110 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 22 $138 +$20 +14%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 21 $19 −$6 -29%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 16 $338 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $161 +$30 +18%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $148 −$2 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $158 +$9 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $163 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $135 −$14 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $178 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $1,112 −$12 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $160 +$2 +1%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $159 +$1 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $176 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 08 $159 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $477 +$1 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $174 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 06 $459 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $626 −$3 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 06 $179 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $599 +$3 +1%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $256 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $216 +$3 +1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $188 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 01 $179 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 30 $160 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 29 $92 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $179 −$1 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 28 $158 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $154 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 24 $132 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $170 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $154 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $144 +$2 +1%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $1,008 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? May 13 $915 +$1 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 12 $1,017 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 11 $925 −$1 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 60% and 100% on August 1 Jun 26 $9 $0 +2%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will A Minecraft Movie be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 04 $8 $0 +1%
Will Han Duck-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Kim Moon-soo win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elect Jun 04 $15 −$15 -100%
Will valid votes be between 36 million and 38 million in South Korean Jun 03 $9 $0 -4%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? Jun 02 $8 $0 +3%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? May 24 $17 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in May? May 21 $7 $0 +0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $18 +$8 +42%
Will the New York Knicks win the Eastern Conference? May 20 $7 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $110 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $110 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $105 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 48¢ $53 8h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $47 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 42¢ $92 10h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $13 31h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 6d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $19 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $5 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $123 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $68 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $161 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $55 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $91 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $30 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $118 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 22¢ $11 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 23¢ $12 8d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $164 9d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $164 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $163 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $163 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $103 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 35¢ $18 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 39¢ $91 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.13 · official $0.00 (match) · 413 history records