Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T17:55:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4fdc…b601 crypto 11 markets active 5d ago coverage 185d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-2%) realized +$4 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +7% what you keep after slip
Net edge+7%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%2W / 2L
Drawdown74%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$27now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 185d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 46% +$4
politics 28% −$4
other 26% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+6.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 4 +17.8% +6.6% 50% 50% +6.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +6.6% 50% +6.6%
10% -3.6% 50% -3.6%
15% -12.9% 50% -12.9%
20% -21.4% 50% -21.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +18% · $-wt +18% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$5 · ×1.36 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

185d coverage
Net worth$27
Realized+$4
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses2 / 2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)4 / 11
History coverage185d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown74%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+11%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-30%)
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-47%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 19¢ 18¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 9, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Dec 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Dec 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 1PM ET Dec 08 $5 +$5 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 8, 12PM ET Dec 08 $5 +$8 +163%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.31 · official $27.31 (match) · 20 history records