Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T07:51:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fdf…1c2e crypto 47 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (106 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-1%) realized −$13 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%18W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day106.0pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$109
sports 13% +$168
other 2% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (106 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -24.5% -31.7% 41% 39% -6.5%
≤30d 44 -24.5% -31.7% 41% 39% -6.5%
≤90d 44 -24.5% -31.7% 41% 39% -6.5%
all 44 -24.5% -31.7% 41% 39% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover106.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -31.7% 39% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -38.2% 36% -15.4%
15% -44.2% 30% -23.6%
20% -49.7% 25% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$23 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses18 / 26
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)44 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day106.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Exact Score: Spain 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-10%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Up 11¢ 10¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$11 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$18 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 21 $154 +$103 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $41 −$16 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$38 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 21 $51 +$30 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 21 $76 +$24 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 21 $136 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$18 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 21 $77 +$46 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 21 $21 −$20 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$17 -64%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $132 +$139 +105%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $10 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 21 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 21 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 21 $51 −$51 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 21 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 21 $32 −$32 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Sweden? Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 21 $92 −$92 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$5 +45%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 21 $21 +$12 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 21 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$9 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$8 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$121 +230%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $51 +$33 +65%
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $15 +$15 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 20 $6 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$46 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 20 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $26 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $25 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $26 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $25 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET SELL Up 44¢ $25 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $5 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $25 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $60.58 · official $60.17 (match) · 132 history records