Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:10:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4F 0x4fdf…3185 other 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$194 (+19%) realized +$195 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR87%break-even
Win rate87%13W / 2L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$64per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 93% +$192
sports 7% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +87%
net ROI/market (all)+7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 87% 87% +12.8%
≤30d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 87% 87% +12.8%
≤90d 15 +18.7% +7.4% 87% 87% +12.8%
all 15 +18.7% +7.4% 87% 87% +12.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.4% 87% +12.8%
10% -2.9% 47% +2.0%
15% -12.3% 47% -7.8%
20% -20.9% 27% -16.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$12 · ×1.5 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.78 per $1 lost it wins $9.78
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized+$195
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses13 / 2
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)15 / 16
History coverage5d
Avg bet$64
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 15 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $191 $190 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $173 +$20 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $83 +$44 +52%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $51 +$8 +16%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $65 +$9 +14%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $39 +$26 +67%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $25 +$14 +54%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $20 +$4 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$3 +57%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$4 -69%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $200 +$42 +21%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $21 +$9 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $193 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $193 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $173 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $147 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 17h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $83 35h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 34¢ $60 37h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $51 39h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $75 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $65 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $39 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $39 46h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 100¢ $24 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 82¢ $20 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $5 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $23 4d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $242 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 35¢ $30 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $200 4d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 24¢ $21 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $189.91 · official $189.91 (match) · 31 history records