Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:27:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fe0…48e5 world 62 markets active 2h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$4 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate5%3W / 58L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day10.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 36% −$2
politics 14% −$1
sports 8% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.3% -11.6% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤30d 61 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 61 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -9.8%
all 61 -1.0% -10.4% 5% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -9.8%
10% -19.0% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.8% 0% -26.3%
20% -34.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)5%
Wins / losses3 / 58
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage20d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day10.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tidö parties win a majority in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary elections? No 74¢ 92¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 202 Jun 29 $52 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30? Jun 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Jun 29 $14 −$1 -4%
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? Jun 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 29 $19 $0 +2%
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, Jun 29 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026? Jun 28 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July? Jun 28 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in July? Jun 28 $4 −$2 -38%
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? Jun 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? Jun 28 $50 $0 +0%
Will Kimi Antonelli achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr Jun 28 $17 $0 -1%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31 Jun 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Myropillia by July 31? Jun 27 $42 $0 +0%
Will Trump speak to Maria Corina Machado in June? Jun 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? Jun 26 $78 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Chasiv Yar by December 31? Jun 23 $7 $0 +0%
Klugman vs. Valentova: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 22 $17 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $433,000 and $435,000 Jun 22 $21 $0 -1%
Will the median home value in the US be between $431,000 and $433,000 Jun 22 $50 $0 -0%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by June 30? Jun 22 $22 $0 +0%
US takes Panama Canal before 2027? Jun 21 $23 $0 +0%
World Cup: Any Team to Score 10+ Goals in the Group Stage? Jun 21 $41 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in June 2026? Jun 21 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine peace referendum scheduled by December 31? Jun 21 $110 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Putin by September 30? Jun 21 $27 $0 +0%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $14 $0 -1%
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Will Lebanon recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 20 $18 $0 +0%
Will Russia enter Orikhiv by July 31? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by December 31, 2026 Jun 20 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by July 31? Jun 20 $12 $0 +0%
Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? Jun 20 $14 −$1 -5%
Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $14 $0 +0%
Ekaterina Alexandrova vs. Anastasia Potapova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $46 −$1 -1%
Will Mexico be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Jun 14 $4 $0 -1%
US x China tariff agreement by December 31? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be between $429,000 and $431,000 Jun 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Trump talks to Cuba leader Diaz-Canel by June 30? Jun 14 $9 $0 -0%
Will the biggest blowout win in the 2026 Stanley Cup Finals be by 4 or Jun 14 $21 $0 +0%
Will Mitch Marner score the most goals in a single game during the 202 Jun 14 $3 $0 -8%
Will Marine Tondelier be the joint left nominee for the 2027 French pr Jun 14 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) win the thir Jun 13 $16 $0 +0%
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by December 31? Jun 13 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) win the third-most Jun 13 $19 $0 +0%
Will Senegal be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
U.S. recognizes Russian sovereignty over Crimea before 2027? Jun 12 $14 $0 +0%
Will the median home value in the US be less than $429,000 on June 30? Jun 12 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 202 SELL No 52¢ $52 1h
Will Ishaq Dar attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 202 BUY No 52¢ $52 1h
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30? SELL No 87¢ $17 3h
Will Russia capture Huliaipilske by September 30? BUY No 87¢ $17 3h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $7 5h
Will White House post 200+ posts from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 5h
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $22 6h
Will Russia capture Toretske by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $22 6h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL No 65¢ $20 8h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY No 64¢ $19 8h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, SELL No 89¢ $22 8h
Will Ahmad Vahidi attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, BUY No 89¢ $22 8h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026? SELL No 39¢ $18 16h
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in July 2026? BUY No 39¢ $18 16h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July? SELL Yes 91¢ $18 18h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July? SELL Yes 91¢ $23 18h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July? BUY Yes 91¢ $23 18h
Will Trump speak to Volodymyr Zelenskyy in July? BUY Yes 91¢ $18 18h
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in July? SELL No $2 19h
Will Trump speak to Mark Carney in July? BUY No 10¢ $4 19h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? SELL Yes 21¢ $10 26h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Rodynske again by July 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $34 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $34 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.68 · official $3.68 (match) · 207 history records