Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:44:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fe1…9163 crypto 35 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (113 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$240 (-19%) realized −$240 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate29%10W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day113.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$364
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (113 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 +5.2% -4.8% 29% 26% -38.3%
≤30d 34 +5.2% -4.8% 29% 26% -38.3%
≤90d 34 +5.2% -4.8% 29% 26% -38.3%
all 34 +5.2% -4.8% 29% 26% -38.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover113.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.8% 26% -38.3%
10% ← realistic here -13.9% 24% -44.2%
15% -22.3% 21% -49.6%
20% -29.9% 12% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 51% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late -29% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$19 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$240
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses10 / 24
Open positions0
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage1d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day113.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 34 Trades
no open positions (16 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 20 $1 +$3 +294%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 20 $30 +$11 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $30 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 20 $3 −$3 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET Jun 20 $55 −$22 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET Jun 20 $104 −$42 -40%
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$46 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $84 −$36 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET Jun 19 $225 −$26 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $105 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $49 −$22 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $48 −$25 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $46 −$44 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$19 -88%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $14 −$12 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $18 +$7 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$6 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $13 −$1 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $4 −$1 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $54 −$41 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $32 +$31 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $67 −$35 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $37 +$15 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $22 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $27 +$13 +47%
Solana Up or Down - June 19, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 19 $1 −$1 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET SELL Down 9¢ $4 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET SELL Up 50¢ $21 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $15 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $16 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET SELL Up 37¢ $30 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $30 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $3 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET SELL Down 26¢ $34 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $3 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $16 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $16 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 16¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $32 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 20, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 1¢ $2 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 23¢ $48 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 14¢ $47 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $84 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $84 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 113 history records