Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:53:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4fe3…a9f7 sports 28 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$305 (+26%) realized +$223 · open +$82
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%10W / 10L
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$42per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$449now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$169
other 14% +$242
crypto 5% −$58
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +22.6% +10.9% 50% 50% +20.9%
≤30d 20 +22.6% +10.9% 50% 50% +20.9%
≤90d 20 +22.6% +10.9% 50% 50% +20.9%
all 20 +22.6% +10.9% 50% 50% +20.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.9% 50% +20.9%
10% +0.3% 50% +9.3%
15% -9.4% 50% -1.2%
20% -18.3% 45% -10.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +34% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +72% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$36 · ×1.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$449
Realized+$223
Unrealized+$82
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses10 / 10
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions8
Markets (closed)20 / 28
History coverage2d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Under 27¢ 65¢ $47 $115 +$67 (+142%)
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 Under 49¢ 92¢ $50 $94 +$44 (+89%)
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? No 52¢ 96¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+86%)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Under 65¢ 90¢ $49 $67 +$19 (+38%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 Under 71¢ 70¢ $49 $49 −$0 (-1%)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 Under 61¢ 38¢ $49 $30 −$19 (-38%)
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever Phoenix Mercury 64¢ $41 $0 −$41 (-99%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 61¢ $32 $0 −$32 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 Jun 23 $43 −$43 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $46 +$29 +62%
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 23 $51 +$29 +57%
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 22 $34 −$33 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $52 −$52 -100%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $45 −$45 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $51 −$51 -100%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet Jun 22 $15 −$1 -3%
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 22 $45 +$98 +216%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $51 +$261 +510%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 Jun 22 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $48 +$41 +86%
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $6 +$4 +70%
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $42 +$26 +62%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $51 +$48 +94%
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 Jun 21 $46 +$21 +46%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $48 +$73 +152%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 27¢ $48 28m
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 71¢ $50 40m
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 65¢ $49 45m
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 61¢ $49 50m
Phoenix Mercury vs. Indiana Fever BUY Phoenix Mercury 64¢ $42 1h
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 49¢ $51 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 61¢ $32 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 52¢ $43 2h
Chicago Sky vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Chicago Sky 52¢ $34 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 63¢ $51 2h
New York Yankees vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $46 3h
Will North Carolina win the 2026 College World Series? BUY No 52¢ $51 9h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Darwin Blanch vs Ugo Blanchet BUY Darwin Blanch 51¢ $15 16h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY No 51¢ $52 21h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 31¢ $45 24h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 16¢ $51 27h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 45¢ $45 27h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Athletics: O/U 12.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 27h
Boston Red Sox vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 53¢ $48 27h
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 61¢ $42 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 29h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 35¢ $51 29h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 55¢ $46 30h
Minnesota Twins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 58¢ $6 30h
Washington Nationals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 68¢ $46 30h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 51¢ $51 30h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 39¢ $48 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 43¢ $6 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $449.05 · official $406.74 · 47 history records