Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T23:47:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
4F 0x4fe3…1eec sports 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$78 (+71%) realized +$78 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +84% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +60% what you keep after slip
Net edge+60%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%3W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$76
sports 20% +$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+66.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +84.5% +66.9% 100% 100% +68.1%
≤30d 3 +84.5% +66.9% 100% 100% +68.1%
≤90d 3 +84.5% +66.9% 100% 100% +68.1%
all 3 +84.5% +66.9% 100% 100% +68.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +66.9% 100% +68.1%
10% +50.9% 100% +52.1%
15% +36.3% 100% +37.4%
20% +23.0% 100% +23.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +86% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +84% · $-wt +86% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$78
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses3 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage1d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $14 +$13 +91%
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 29 $8 +$6 +76%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $88 +$76 +86%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $27 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 51¢ $14 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 35¢ $14 2h
Will Germany vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 5h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? SELL Yes 100¢ $164 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 53¢ $88 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 6 history records