Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:29:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4fe4…29b5 sports 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 207d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$57 (+17%) realized +$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate50%6W / 6L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$40
14 days+$40
30 days+$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$84
sports 35% +$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +42.7%
≤30d 1 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +42.7%
≤90d 1 +57.7% +42.7% 100% 100% +42.7%
all 12 -3.5% -12.7% 50% 42% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 42% +27.1%
10% -21.0% 33% +15.0%
15% -28.7% 25% +3.8%
20% -35.7% 25% -6.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +40% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late +22% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$5 · ×4.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.32 per $1 lost it wins $4.32
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

207d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized+$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses6 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)12 / 13
History coverage207d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $69 $69 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $70 +$40 +58%
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 25 $65 +$48 +74%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? Jan 12 $5 −$3 -52%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 23 $35 +$6 +18%
Falcons vs. Buccaneers Dec 12 $10 −$4 -39%
Eagles vs. Chargers Dec 09 $15 $0 -2%
Texans vs. Chiefs Dec 08 $30 +$28 +93%
Cowboys vs. Lions Dec 05 $10 +$3 +27%
Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 51.5 Nov 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bengals vs. Ravens Nov 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Nothing Ever Happens: November Nov 27 $10 +$1 +8%
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? Nov 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $36 30m
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 96¢ $110 31m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $33 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $70 1h
Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 23¢ $113 144d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 158d
49ers vs. Colts SELL Colts 32¢ $12 178d
49ers vs. Colts BUY Colts 27¢ $8 178d
49ers vs. Colts BUY Colts 23¢ $2 178d
49ers vs. Colts SELL 49ers 65¢ $29 178d
49ers vs. Colts BUY 49ers 56¢ $25 178d
Falcons vs. Buccaneers SELL Falcons 18¢ $6 189d
Falcons vs. Buccaneers BUY Falcons 29¢ $10 189d
Eagles vs. Chargers SELL Chargers 21¢ $6 192d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Chargers 37¢ $10 192d
Eagles vs. Chargers SELL Eagles 63¢ $9 192d
Eagles vs. Chargers BUY Eagles 35¢ $5 192d
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 193d
Texans vs. Chiefs SELL Texans 92¢ $22 193d
Texans vs. Chiefs BUY Texans 42¢ $10 193d
Texans vs. Chiefs SELL Chiefs 57¢ $16 193d
Texans vs. Chiefs BUY Chiefs 35¢ $10 193d
Texans vs. Chiefs SELL Texans 65¢ $20 193d
Texans vs. Chiefs BUY Texans 33¢ $10 193d
Cowboys vs. Lions BUY Lions 79¢ $10 196d
Bengals vs. Ravens: O/U 51.5 BUY Over 52¢ $10 204d
Bengals vs. Ravens BUY Ravens 76¢ $10 204d
Nothing Ever Happens: November SELL Yes 94¢ $11 204d
Maduro out by November 30, 2025? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 206d
Nothing Ever Happens: November BUY Yes 87¢ $10 206d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.98 · official $68.98 (match) · 34 history records