Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T14:44:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fe6…13d6 other 210 markets active 2h ago coverage 311d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$97 (-2%) realized −$113 · open +$16
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate79%150W / 41L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$53
world 20% −$11
politics 15% −$22
crypto 13% +$9
tech 6% −$48
economics 2% +$37
finance 1% $0
sports 0% −$3
culture 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 12 -0.7% -10.2% 67% 17% -24.8%
≤90d 78 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 14% -11.3%
all 191 -1.1% -10.5% 79% 22% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 22% -11.9%
10% -19.1% 13% -20.3%
15% -26.9% 9% -28.0%
20% -34.1% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$7 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

311d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$16
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses150 / 41
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)191 / 210
History coverage311d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by June 30? No 85¢ 98¢ $50 $58 +$8 (+15%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 39¢ 66¢ $20 $34 +$14 (+71%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 97¢ 98¢ $29 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes 38¢ 25¢ $20 $13 −$7 (-34%)
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the lead underwriter in Anthropic's initial public offering? Yes $10 $11 +$1 (+10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? No 93¢ 96¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
AI bubble burst in 2026? No 80¢ 79¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-13%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+33%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Yes 92¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-31%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $1 −$0 (-41%)
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $45 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $15 $0 +1%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -55%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 01 $1 +$1 +116%
Will Anže Logar be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 01 $6 −$1 -18%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +4%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $5 $0 +2%
Will Janez Janša be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 01 $5 +$2 +33%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 01 $10 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? Jun 01 $15 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 21 $5 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 14 $15 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $170 +$2 +1%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $2 −$2 -83%
Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, May 05 $3 $0 +4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by April 30? May 02 $20 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 02 $46 +$1 +3%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? May 02 $1 $0 +16%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $2 $0 +5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $5 $0 +2%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch? May 02 $5 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$800M one day after launch? May 02 $5 $0 +9%
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026? May 02 $10 $0 +3%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 02 $10 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? Apr 28 $6 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $5 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on April 24? Apr 25 $5 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 17 $2 −$1 -51%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 15 $1 $0 +6%
Will René Yahuasi Calamani win the 2026 La Paz gubernatorial election? Apr 13 $1 $0 +11%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Apr 08 $5 +$1 +12%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Michigan win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 07 $2 +$4 +198%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 06 $1 $0 -21%
Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen by March 31? Apr 06 $5 $0 +8%
US strike on Cuba by March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +2%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $310 +$1 +0%
AI Industry Downturn by March 31, 2026? Apr 01 $20 +$1 +4%
Will 14–16 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +2%
Will 17–19 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $1 $0 +3%
Will 11–13 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +1%
Will 20 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding on March 31? Apr 01 $3 $0 +9%
Will Jeff Bezos be 2nd richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +3%
Will Jensen Huang be 2nd richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mark Zuckerberg be 2nd richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Will Larry Ellison be 2nd richest person on March 31? Apr 01 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 92¢ $1 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY No 93¢ $10 1h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $40 1h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $20 4h
Will Mistral have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 43h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes $1 43h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $45 43h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $45 2d
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the SELL Yes $9 12d
Will JPMorgan Chase or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes $21 12d
Will Goldman Sachs or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 38¢ $20 12d
Will Morgan Stanley or any of its underwriting affiliates serve as the BUY Yes 39¢ $20 12d
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 97¢ $5 26d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 26d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $15 26d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $15 34d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $20 40d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 40d
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1 40d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 40d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 40d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? BUY No 97¢ $5 40d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on April 27? BUY Yes 99¢ $6 51d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 51d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.67 · official $219.67 (match) · 536 history records