Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:47:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fe6…bb5c other 200 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$24 (-6%) realized −$19 · open −$5
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate20%39W / 155L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day10.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$9now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$49
7 days+$89
14 days+$65
30 days+$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 52% +$59
other 48% −$62
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-34.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +22.5% +10.9% 44% 44% +61.0%
≤30d 194 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -7.1%
≤90d 194 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -7.1%
all 194 -27.6% -34.5% 20% 20% -7.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.5% 20% -7.1%
10% -40.7% 20% -16.0%
15% -46.5% 20% -24.1%
20% -51.7% 20% -31.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -39% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×4.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$9
Realized−$19
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses39 / 155
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions6
Markets (closed)194 / 200
History coverage22d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day10.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 194 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 45¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Yes 40¢ 40¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Yes 31¢ 34¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+8%)
Australia leading at halftime? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? Yes 13¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 120 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $15 +$18 +121%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $2 +$3 +139%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $15 +$11 +74%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$4 +250%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$18 +172%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$2 -81%
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Panama to win the second half? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$22 +436%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $10 +$11 +112%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $2 +$3 +223%
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$5 +107%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will CD Universidad Católica vs. CD Universidad de Concepción end in a Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $10 +$19 +188%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +122%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Jun 11 $0 $0 -97%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
England vs. Costa Rica: Neither team to score first? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Neither team to score first? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nicaragua win on 2026-05-29? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will British Virgin Islands win on 2026-06-03? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Malta win on 2026-06-01? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Andorra win on 2026-06-07? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Costa Rica leading at halftime? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Costa Rica win on 2026-06-01? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Uzbekistan (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus end in a draw? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Madagascar win on 2026-06-02? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Cambodia (-1.5) Jun 10 $1 +$7 +733%
Russia vs. Trinidad and Tobago: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Central African Republic leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
North Macedonia vs. Azerbaijan: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Georgia vs. Greece: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Northern Ireland vs. Switzerland: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $2 −$2 -98%
Spread: Italy (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Slovenia vs. Germany: Draw at halftime? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: DR Congo (-1.5) Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $34 20m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $5 22m
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 0 Colombia? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 56¢ $15 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $15 1h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 9h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $0 21h
Australia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 21h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 36¢ $10 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 26h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 32h
Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 40¢ $2 36h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $2 37h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $2 37h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 31¢ $2 37h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $0 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $3 2d
Austria vs. Jordan: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes $1 2d
Panama to win the second half? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $27 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $22 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 18¢ $5 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 46¢ $10 3d
Will CD Huachipato win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 4d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 4d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $11 5d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 47¢ $5 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.86 · official $8.86 (match) · 330 history records