Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:11:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4fea…fb21
crypto · 132 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$3 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$13
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses77 / 45
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)122 / 132
History coverage5d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day42.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%
Chart Positions 10 History 122 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Over 72¢ 100¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+38%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 Over 66¢ 66¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+22%)
Will Ousmane Dembélé score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 78¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 68¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 Over 62¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Ciryl Gane 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Derrick Lewis 23¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 43¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hamilton Tiger-Cats vs. Winnipeg Blue Bombers Winnipeg Blue Bombers 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Up 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Down 98¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) South Africa 60¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Up 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 9? Yes 82¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Down 88¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 30¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bolivia vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Down 28¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -53%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +50%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 Jun 13 $2 +$2 +76%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +44%
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $1 +$1 +62%
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$1 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +42%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $1 +$1 +93%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +26%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 7.5 Jun 12 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$3 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $2 $0 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$1 -51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 11 $3 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$1 -9%
Will Bitcoin reach $63,000 on June 10? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +62%
England vs. Costa Rica: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $1 +$1 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 83% −$9
sports 14% +$5
other 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $1 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $2 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 SELL Over 28¢ $0 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 57¢ $1 12h
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 66¢ $2 12h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 63¢ $1 12h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 51¢ $1 13h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $1 25h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 56¢ $2 36h
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA Worl SELL No 82¢ $1 37h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis 23¢ $1 37h
Canada vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Bosnia-Herzegovina O/U 0.5 BUY Over 61¢ $1 38h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1 38h
Will Alexander Isak score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 65¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $1 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 122 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 39% -11.3%
≤30d 122 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 39% -11.3%
≤90d 122 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 39% -11.3%
all 122 -2.6% -11.9% 63% 39% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover42.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 39% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.3% 30% -19.8%
15% -28.0% 22% -27.6%
20% -35.1% 13% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.01 · official $13.01 (match) · 333 history records