Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T23:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
4F 0x4fee…c487 crypto 1969 markets active 7h ago coverage 24d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 23d only
✗ bot/MM pace (118 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$193 (+1%) realized +$193 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate63%1032W / 614L
Drawdown17%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day118.0pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$267
7 days−$35
14 days+$966
30 days+$1,643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$1,887
other 2% +$81
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (118 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 448 -4.5% -13.6% 52% 52% -10.8%
≤30d 1646 +12.3% +1.6% 63% 62% +1.7%
≤90d 1646 +12.3% +1.6% 63% 62% +1.7%
all 1646 +12.3% +1.6% 63% 62% +1.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover118.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.6% 62% +1.7%
10% ← realistic here -8.1% 59% -8.1%
15% -17.0% 56% -16.9%
20% -25.1% 52% -25.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +15% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.81 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.36 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

24d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$193
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses1032 / 614
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1646 / 1969
History coverage24d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day118.0
Drawdown17%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1646 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 25 $90 −$90 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 25 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 2, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 25 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$16 -324%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $6 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $4 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $10 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET SELL Down 98¢ $24 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records