Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T01:43:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4fef…8bb9 sports 28 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$417 (-11%) realized −$415 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%11W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$132per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$49est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$194now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$214
other 33% −$290
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 -18.3% -26.1% 42% 42% -22.4%
≤30d 26 -18.3% -26.1% 42% 42% -22.4%
≤90d 26 -18.3% -26.1% 42% 42% -22.4%
all 26 -18.3% -26.1% 42% 42% -22.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 42% -22.4%
10% -33.2% 35% -29.9%
15% -39.6% 35% -36.6%
20% -45.6% 31% -42.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 41% · top 2 62% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -36% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$91 · ×0.87 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$194
Realized−$415
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses11 / 15
Est. fees paid−$49
Open positions2
Markets (closed)26 / 28
History coverage4d
Avg bet$132
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Colombia to win the second half? No 50¢ 50¢ $167 $165 −$2 (-1%)
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 56¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $70 +$11 +15%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $25 +$3 +14%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $201 −$150 -75%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $317 −$165 -52%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $25 +$18 +72%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $25 +$22 +89%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $73 −$73 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $167 +$105 +63%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $95 −$95 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $139 −$139 -100%
Spread: Egypt (-1.5) Jun 22 $15 −$15 -100%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $94 +$80 +85%
Spread: Spain (-3.5) Jun 21 $211 −$193 -92%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $341 +$184 +54%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Tunisia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $50 +$22 +43%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $50 +$29 +58%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $28 +$40 +144%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $744 −$195 -26%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $552 −$259 -47%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $201 +$356 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Colombia vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $70 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $5 10h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 10h
Colombia to win the second half? BUY No 50¢ $170 15h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 12¢ $5 20h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $176 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 33¢ $73 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 56¢ $155 35h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 44¢ $152 36h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 45¢ $163 36h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $147 36h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $25 37h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 87¢ $25 37h
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 57¢ $25 37h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $25 37h
France vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $20 37h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 53¢ $20 37h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $20 37h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $30 37h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 38¢ $139 2d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $94 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $9 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $7 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) SELL Saudi Arabia 13¢ $17 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $45 2d
Spread: Spain (-3.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 68¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $193.96 · official $193.97 (match) · 86 history records