Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T19:45:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4ff0…9c82 crypto 104 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$347 (-18%) realized −$322 · open −$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -42% what you keep after slip
Net edge-42%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate22%23W / 80L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day29.4pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 62% −$409
weather 20% −$104
other 18% −$133
sports 1% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-32.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 103 -25.2% -32.3% 22% 21% -39.4%
≤30d 103 -25.2% -32.3% 22% 21% -39.4%
≤90d 103 -25.2% -32.3% 22% 21% -39.4%
all 103 -25.2% -32.3% 22% 21% -39.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -32.3% 21% -39.4%
10% ← realistic here -38.8% 20% -45.2%
15% -44.7% 20% -50.5%
20% -50.1% 20% -55.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -33% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$38 vs −$19 · ×2.0 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$322
Unrealized−$25
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses23 / 80
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)103 / 104
History coverage7d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 103 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on June 27? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 27 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 27 $154 −$150 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 27 $101 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$61 +575%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 27 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $11 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 27 $26 +$105 +398%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 27? Jun 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 27? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 27 $11 +$2 +16%
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 27 $21 +$90 +425%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C or higher on June 26 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $21 −$21 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Norway vs. France: Draw at halftime? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 26 $9 +$23 +268%
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C on June 26? Jun 26 $31 +$90 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 30°C on June 26? Jun 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 26? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 26, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 26 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 25? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on June 25? Jun 26 $31 −$31 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 25 $8 +$22 +288%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$12 +114%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 25? Jun 25 $31 +$56 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8AM ET Jun 25 $21 +$59 +280%
BNB Up or Down - June 25, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$13 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $110 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $101 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $72 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET SELL Up 15¢ $16 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 6¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 19¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 6¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $6 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $21 4h
BNB Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $11 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 310 history records