Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:07:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4ff1…5c66 crypto 141 markets active 1h ago coverage 115d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$96 (-16%) realized +$21 · open −$117
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate41%58W / 82L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$248now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$69
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$148
crypto 30% +$59
world 4% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-19.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 124 -6.1% -15.0% 44% 37% -14.3%
≤30d 129 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 38% -10.1%
≤90d 129 -2.8% -12.0% 45% 38% -10.1%
all 140 -10.4% -19.0% 41% 35% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.0% 35% -32.2%
10% -26.7% 31% -38.7%
15% -33.8% 26% -44.6%
20% -40.3% 24% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 61% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$2 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$248
Realized+$21
Unrealized−$117
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses58 / 82
Open positions1
Markets (closed)140 / 141
History coverage115d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 140 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $365 $248 −$117 (-32%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 81 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$10 +945%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 13 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $4 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $4 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $4 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 32h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $1 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $1 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $1 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $1 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.68 · official $247.68 (match) · 206 history records