Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:25:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
4F 0x4ff3…c17f sports 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 229d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$198 (+1%) realized +$177 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate50%47W / 47L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown91%max
Avg bet$170per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$25est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$62
7 days−$115
14 days−$115
30 days−$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% +$477
other 3% −$315
politics 3% +$59
crypto 1% $0
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 35% -21.0%
≤30d 17 -18.0% -25.8% 41% 35% -21.0%
≤90d 18 -22.6% -30.0% 39% 33% -24.8%
all 94 -0.4% -9.9% 50% 43% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 43% -8.4%
10% -18.5% 36% -17.2%
15% -26.4% 32% -25.2%
20% -33.6% 24% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +16% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$108 vs −$103 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

229d coverage
Net worth$191
Realized+$177
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses47 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$25
Open positions5
Markets (closed)94 / 102
History coverage229d
Avg bet$170
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown91%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 94 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Uzbekistan 52¢ 76¢ $52 $76 +$24 (+46%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 63¢ $48 $63 +$15 (+31%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $23 −$7 (-24%)
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $43 +$2 +4%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $45 −$4 -9%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 16 $36 −$34 -95%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $27 −$26 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $102 −$6 -5%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $53 +$39 +74%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $58 −$58 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 14 $71 +$17 +24%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $47 +$44 +94%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $71 +$29 +41%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 +$21 +113%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $206 −$115 -56%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $23 +$12 +53%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $101 −$2 -2%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $44 −$43 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Feb 21 $30 −$10 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 3AM ET Feb 21 $20 +$1 +7%
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in Dec 19 $50 −$17 -34%
Will FURIA win the StarLadder Budapest Major 2025? Dec 14 $100 −$100 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 13 $99 −$22 -22%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit (BO3) Dec 11 $538 −$538 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Dec 11 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 09 $750 −$750 -100%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Tundra Esports (BO5) Dec 07 $168 −$107 -64%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Vitality (BO3) Dec 06 $264 +$52 +20%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 06 $100 +$48 +48%
Epstein client list released in 2025? Dec 06 $74 −$57 -76%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Yandex (BO3) Dec 06 $173 +$243 +140%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Dec 05 $335 −$290 -87%
Dota 2: OG vs Team Yandex (BO3) Dec 05 $300 +$128 +43%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FaZe (BO1) Dec 05 $372 −$372 -100%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs PARIVISION (BO1) Dec 04 $114 +$62 +54%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 02 $324 +$32 +10%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs M80 - Map 2 Winner Dec 02 $128 −$44 -34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Astralis (BO3) Dec 01 $96 +$84 +88%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs NIP (BO3) Nov 30 $96 −$64 -67%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Aurora Gaming (BO1) Nov 30 $108 −$2 -2%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs TYLOO (BO1) Nov 30 $360 +$376 +104%
Counter-Strike: Liquid vs B8 (BO1) Nov 29 $207 +$84 +41%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs FlyQuest (BO1) Nov 29 $60 −$60 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs TYLOO (BO1) Nov 29 $148 −$52 -35%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs NIP (BO1) Nov 29 $10 +$15 +152%
Dota 2: MOUZ vs Team Tidebound (BO1) Nov 27 $108 +$24 +22%
Dota 2: OG vs BetBoom Team (BO3) Nov 27 $198 −$42 -21%
Dota 2: Heroic vs Team Yandex (BO1) Nov 27 $60 −$60 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Spirit - Game 1 Winner Nov 27 $22 −$22 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs MOUZ (BO1) Nov 27 $50 −$50 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $49 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Uzbekistan 52¢ $53 1h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $45 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $41 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl SELL XLG Gaming $2 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $7 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $27 36h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl BUY XLG Gaming 18¢ $1 36h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 37h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 37h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 37h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? AND Will Argentina vs. Algeria BUY $10 39h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $23 39h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $13 39h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 39h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 44¢ $96 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 45¢ $102 2d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) AND Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 AND Belgium BUY 23¢ $15 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 92¢ $92 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $53 3d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 AND Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Côt BUY $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $10 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $10 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 87¢ $88 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 99¢ $3 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner SELL T1 86¢ $88 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner BUY T1 44¢ $47 3d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 69¢ $71 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 37¢ $36 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 30¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $191.10 · official $133.10 · 465 history records