Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T23:52:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4ff6…2712 sports 112 markets active 2h ago coverage 38d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$728 (-9%) realized −$728 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%48W / 63L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$65est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$20now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$8
14 days−$1,310
30 days−$1,647
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$210
other 33% −$402
world 7% −$174
crypto 1% −$28
culture 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -27.4% -34.3% 50% 50% -11.6%
≤30d 62 -17.8% -25.7% 31% 31% -39.2%
≤90d 111 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 43% -19.0%
all 111 -3.8% -13.0% 43% 43% -19.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 43% -19.0%
10% -21.3% 41% -26.7%
15% -28.9% 38% -33.8%
20% -35.9% 29% -40.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$57 vs −$56 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.77 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

38d coverage
Net worth$20
Realized−$728
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses48 / 63
Est. fees paid−$65
Open positions1
Markets (closed)111 / 112
History coverage38d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 111 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $119 +$52 +43%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $116 +$34 +29%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $102 −$83 -82%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 11 $388 −$281 -72%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $101 −$30 -30%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $101 +$43 +42%
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? Jun 09 $100 +$105 +105%
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $175 −$172 -99%
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $100 −$100 -100%
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 +$48 +472%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $10 −$10 -97%
SC Freiburg vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Associação Chapecoense de Futebol vs. Clube do Remo end in a draw Jun 07 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Club Nacional de Football vs. Club Universitario de Deportes: O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Zhejiang Zhiye FC vs. Liaoning Tieren FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Tianjin Jinmen Hu FC vs. Dalian Yingbo FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Zhejiang Zhiye FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 07 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-05-24? Jun 07 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Kuwait win on 2026-06-05? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Indonesia vs. Oman: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $102 −$102 -100%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $101 −$48 -48%
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? Jun 07 $102 −$30 -30%
Brazil vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 06 $102 +$105 +103%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $51 +$59 +116%
Northern Ireland vs. Guinea: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $31 −$30 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 04 $2 −$1 -67%
Will Poland vs. Nigeria end in a draw? Jun 03 $5 +$48 +937%
Will Nigeria win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $20 +$61 +298%
Croatia vs. Belgium: Both Teams to Score Jun 02 $101 −$101 -100%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $101 +$74 +73%
RC Deportivo La Coruña vs. UD Las Palmas: Both Teams to Score May 31 $101 +$71 +70%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $266 +$228 +86%
Olympique Lyonnais vs. Racing Club de Lens: Both Teams to Score May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
West Ham United FC vs. Leeds United FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
CA Paranaense vs. CR Flamengo: O/U 2.5 May 30 $51 −$51 -100%
Tottenham Hotspur FC vs. Everton FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $101 −$101 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Portland Timbers: Both Teams to Score May 30 $121 −$121 -100%
Will Beijing Guoan FC win on 2026-05-19? May 30 $102 −$102 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-23? May 30 $124 −$124 -100%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 550k and 600k? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Chengdu Rongcheng FC win on 2026-05-19? May 30 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Shanghai Shenhua FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paderborn win on 2026-05-25? May 30 $61 −$11 -18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $171 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $119 4h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 6h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 13h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $150 18h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 77¢ $116 18h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 9¢ $18 19h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 23h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $206 9d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? SELL Yes 44¢ $71 10d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 10d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? SELL Yes 95¢ $144 11d
Will San Marino win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 11d
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 11d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $204 11d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $72 11d
Will Tajikistan vs. India end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $27 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 51¢ $100 11d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 64¢ $73 11d
Will Tajikistan win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 59¢ $101 11d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $80 11d
China PR vs. Thailand: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 88¢ $100 11d
China PR vs. Thailand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $101 11d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? SELL Yes 94¢ $59 12d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 12d
Will Mauritania win on 2026-06-08? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 12d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $101 12d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $53 13d
UD Las Palmas vs. Málaga CF: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 13d
Will Denmark vs. Ukraine end in a draw? SELL Yes 13¢ $72 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $19.56 · official $19.59 (match) · 216 history records