Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:45:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
4F 0x4ff6…4e36 other 210 markets active 0h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$333 (+5%) realized +$369 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip
Net edge+5%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%106W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$556now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$187
7 days−$61
14 days+$6
30 days+$69
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$211
crypto 19% −$2
sports 5% +$181
world 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
politics 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +13.6% +2.8% 34% 34% -15.5%
≤30d 84 +36.4% +23.4% 38% 32% -11.3%
≤90d 84 +36.4% +23.4% 38% 32% -11.3%
all 196 +20.5% +9.0% 54% 43% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 43% -11.4%
10% -1.4% 26% -19.8%
15% -10.9% 17% -27.6%
20% -19.7% 10% -34.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +12% → late +29% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$13 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$556
Realized+$369
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses106 / 90
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions14
Markets (closed)196 / 210
History coverage205d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 196 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 23¢ 25¢ $90 $99 +$9 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $79 $87 +$8 (+10%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $70 $74 +$4 (+6%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 20¢ $49 $51 +$2 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $48 $44 −$4 (-9%)
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 21¢ 16¢ $53 $39 −$15 (-28%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $30 $36 +$6 (+22%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Yes 27¢ 12¢ $67 $29 −$38 (-57%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-13%)
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $25 $26 +$1 (+2%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 5¢ $27 $19 −$8 (-29%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 20¢ 21¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+5%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $109 −$36 -33%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 23 $140 −$50 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $128 −$78 -61%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $81 −$38 -47%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $10 −$4 -39%
Will Elon Musk post 840-879 tweets in June 2026? Jun 22 $17 −$5 -28%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in June 2026? Jun 22 $8 +$1 +14%
Will Elon Musk post 960-999 tweets in June 2026? Jun 22 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Elon Musk post 920-959 tweets in June 2026? Jun 22 $24 +$3 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 880-919 tweets in June 2026? Jun 22 $24 +$3 +15%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 22 $51 +$17 +34%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $53 +$74 +142%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 21 $41 −$25 -62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $7 +$1 +20%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $18 −$6 -35%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? Jun 19 $33 −$20 -60%
Spread: Czechia (-1.5) Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $11 −$3 -30%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $38 +$30 +79%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $55 +$92 +168%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $1 +$8 +754%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $5 +$11 +228%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $14 −$14 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $5 −$1 -26%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $5 $0 -5%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $66 +$61 +92%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $26 −$6 -25%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $43 +$22 +52%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $10 +$6 +55%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $27 +$9 +34%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $52 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$2 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 7, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $12 −$11 -93%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from January 16 to January 23, 2026 Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $22 −$20 -92%
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 22? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on February 26? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $44 −$31 -71%
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 7m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 13m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 37m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 37m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 42m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 42m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 45m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 46m
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 46m
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 50m
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $17 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $22 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $9 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $16 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $25 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $14 1h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $556.46 · official $556.40 (match) · 851 history records