Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:12:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4ffa…6bb2 crypto 311 markets active 15h ago coverage 3d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Wins small, loses big
✗ bot/MM pace (286 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! loses its big bets
Total PnL +$286 (+1%) realized +$286 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate67%207W / 104L
Whale WR33%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$173per market
Trades / day286.0pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$291
other 2% −$145
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (286 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 311 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 41% -10.2%
≤30d 311 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 41% -10.2%
≤90d 311 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 41% -10.2%
all 311 -5.2% -14.2% 67% 41% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover286.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 41% -10.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 22% -18.8%
15% -29.9% 12% -26.6%
20% -36.8% 7% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 33% (≥$500) wins small, loses big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$56 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.93 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$286
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses207 / 104
Whale WR (big bets)33%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)311 / 311
History coverage3d
Avg bet$173
Trades / day286.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 311 Trades
no open positions (52 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 19 $3 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 19 $24 −$13 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 19 $702 −$700 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 19 $201 +$9 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $103 +$66 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $352 −$49 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 19 $502 +$27 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$30 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $407 +$126 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 19 $302 +$32 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 19 $207 +$30 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 19 $110 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $105 +$181 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $311 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 19 $71 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 19 $71 +$21 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$8 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 19 $311 −$7 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$3 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 19 $112 +$23 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$10 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 19 $121 −$19 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 19 $111 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$7 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$9 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 19 $212 +$12 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$9 +41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 19 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 19 $211 −$9 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 19 $312 +$17 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 19 $51 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$4 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 19 $110 −$9 -9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $14 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $10 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $103 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $101 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $102 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1056 history records