Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:56:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4ffd…7821
sports · 441 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71,362 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69,825 · open −$1,537
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$17,306
Realized−$69,825
Unrealized−$1,537
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses192 / 620
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,607
Open positions14
Markets (closed)812 / 441
History coverage9d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day338.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 14 History 812 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65,897
7 days−$68,944
14 days−$69,825
30 days−$69,825
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 63¢ 100¢ $5,615 $8,919 +$3,304 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 70¢ 70¢ $3,768 $3,806 +$37 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 54¢ 100¢ $580 $1,070 +$490 (+85%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 60¢ 100¢ $610 $1,015 +$406 (+67%)
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage GenOne 67¢ 100¢ $457 $681 +$223 (+49%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 82¢ 100¢ $548 $667 +$119 (+22%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 47¢ 30¢ $683 $428 −$256 (-37%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Eintracht Spandau 66¢ 66¢ $301 $299 −$2 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 17¢ 16¢ $189 $180 −$9 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 77¢ 83¢ $102 $110 +$7 (+7%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Ursa 59¢ 100¢ $43 $74 +$31 (+70%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Anubis Gaming 23¢ 34¢ $32 $48 +$16 (+50%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 39¢ 17¢ $8 $3 −$4 (-56%)
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Forsaken 13¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-33%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Ursa 37¢ 15¢ $6 $2 −$3 (-59%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C WLGaming Esports 19¢ 0¢ $523 $1 −$522 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 43¢ 0¢ $1,016 $1 −$1,015 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 8¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-99%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Heretics 42¢ 0¢ $179 $0 −$179 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 53¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs Alzon 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 12 $388 −$388 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Global Esports (BO3) - Esports World C Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 12 $374 −$374 -100%
Valorant: Dortmund eSports vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs INTZ (BO3) - South America League Kickoff Pl Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $208 −$208 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Hull City AFC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 P Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $249 −$249 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $145 −$145 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $344 −$344 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffs Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Jun 12 $2,419 −$2,419 -100%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Sharks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $188 −$188 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regula Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $583 −$583 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$11,131
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 78¢ $487 9m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 68¢ $2,056 17m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 78¢ $96 19m
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 66¢ $304 20m
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 37¢ $6 22m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 13¢ $4 22m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $8 22m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 17¢ $194 24m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 13¢ $12 35m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $168 37m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $694 37m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $85 40m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 30¢ $30 44m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $204 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $55 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 39¢ $52 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $99 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $28 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $176 45m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $10 46m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 82¢ $240 46m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $20 46m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $179 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $127 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $45 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $169 47m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $17 48m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 43¢ $17 54m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $128 54m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 70¢ $1,259 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 708 -62.7% -66.3% 20% 17% -37.8%
≤30d 812 -55.2% -59.4% 24% 20% -32.8%
≤90d 812 -55.2% -59.4% 24% 20% -32.8%
all 812 -55.2% -59.4% 24% 20% -32.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover338.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.4% 20% -32.8%
10% ← realistic here -63.3% 15% -39.3%
15% -66.9% 11% -45.1%
20% -70.1% 7% -50.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,306.48 · official $17,306.49 (match) · 3500 history records