Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:14:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4ffe…9f71
other · 598 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$118,161 +1886%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$958 · open +$250
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,266
Realized+$958
Unrealized+$250
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses256 / 64
Est. fees paid−$28
Open positions500
Markets (closed)320 / 598
History coverage2d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day2183.8
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit57%
Chart Positions 500 History 320 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$958
7 days+$958
14 days+$958
30 days+$958
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 0¢ 10¢ $5 $260 +$254 (+4810%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No 2¢ 36¢ $11 $225 +$215 (+1962%)
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 49.0 and 51.9 in June? Yes 0¢ 36¢ $1 $198 +$198 (+36400%)
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $5 $86 +$81 (+1720%)
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $25 $82 +$57 (+228%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 6¢ 24¢ $19 $72 +$53 (+284%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 3¢ 14¢ $14 $60 +$46 (+325%)
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $34 $51 +$17 (+50%)
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $18 $49 +$31 (+173%)
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $20 $47 +$27 (+135%)
Will Ruba Ghazal be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $2 $46 +$44 (+1925%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? No 6¢ 28¢ $9 $41 +$32 (+367%)
Will Hyperliquid HIP-3 open interest hit $4B in 2026? No 12¢ 22¢ $24 $41 +$17 (+72%)
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? Yes 16¢ 36¢ $18 $41 +$23 (+123%)
Will Jackson Suber win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Yes 8¢ 20¢ $16 $40 +$24 (+144%)
Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $24 $37 +$13 (+56%)
Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $2 $36 +$35 (+2055%)
Will Germany send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 10¢ $15 $36 +$21 (+141%)
Will Camilo Santana finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $14 $34 +$20 (+145%)
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 1¢ 5¢ $7 $33 +$25 (+350%)
Will Vladimir Putin be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $11 $32 +$22 (+200%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $13 $32 +$18 (+139%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+50%)
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 42¢ 58¢ $21 $29 +$8 (+39%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $33 $29 −$4 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $3 −$2 -89%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 14 $3 $0 -18%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +6%
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? Jun 14 $18 +$6 +32%
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +16%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $53 +$22 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? Jun 14 $0 $0 +42%
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA Jun 14 $1 +$3 +247%
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? Jun 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 14 $1 $0 +23%
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? Jun 14 $1 +$11 +1184%
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $13 −$3 -23%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $14 +$2 +12%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Trump meet with Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +92%
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $24 −$6 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 15? Jun 14 $2 $0 -24%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $12 +$6 +54%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be an Independent or a Technoc Jun 14 $12 +$4 +30%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 +3%
Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? Jun 14 $2 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $16 −$15 -93%
Opensea FDV above $3B one day after launch? Jun 14 $12 +$4 +33%
Will Tunisia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 14 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 15? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +54%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 14 $18 +$18 +96%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $20 +$5 +25%
Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $2 +$17 +719%
Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in July 2026? Jun 14 $9 −$7 -82%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 14 $0 $0 +30%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 14 $12 +$2 +13%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA Worl Jun 14 $25 +$13 +52%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Will a player representing Egypt be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIF Jun 14 $0 $0 -79%
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +30%
Will Paraguay finish second in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 14 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Senegal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $0 $0 -99%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 14 $19 +$3 +13%
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Jun 14 $19 +$5 +25%
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $7 +$1 +12%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -6%
Will King Abdullah II sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $48 −$6 -13%
Will FUT Esports win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 14 $1 +$16 +3130%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +51%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 in June? Jun 14 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 14 $12 +$1 +11%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17? Jun 14 $31 +$4 +14%
Will "Obsession" 5th Weekend Box Office be between 17m and 19m? Jun 14 $36 +$7 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% +$576
world 10% +$279
sports 5% +$28
politics 4% +$175
tech 3% +$114
crypto 3% +$19
culture 2% +$19
finance 1% −$25
weather 1% +$18
economics 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 0m
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 4m
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL No 44¢ $2 6m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $4,800 in June? SELL Yes 4¢ $12 6m
Will GenG qualify to MSI 2026? SELL No 30¢ $18 7m
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 7m
Will Leviatán win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $0 8m
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in June? SELL Yes 31¢ $1 12m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 42¢ $6 19m
Will Ali Motahari be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 20m
Will "Backrooms" be the May film with the highest domestic gross on Ju SELL Yes 0¢ $1 22m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 90-91°F on June 15? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23m
Will Lamine Yamal record the most goal contributions at the 2026 FIFA BUY Yes 12¢ $1 23m
Will Mexico win the World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 23m
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 24m
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 24m
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 BUY Yes 0¢ $2 27m
Will Trump speak to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in June? BUY No 34¢ $1 28m
Will Florian Wirtz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 28m
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 28m
Will South Korea win the World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 28m
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 41¢ $6 29m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 45¢ $3 30m
Will Bilibili Gaming win the LPL 2026 season? BUY No 33¢ $0 32m
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 32m
Will Amad Diallo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 33m
Will "Scary Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 14m? SELL Yes 28¢ $6 33m
Will Kai Havertz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 33m
Will Luis Diaz be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 33m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+63.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 320 +80.7% +63.5% 80% 57% +12.4%
≤30d 320 +80.7% +63.5% 80% 57% +12.4%
≤90d 320 +80.7% +63.5% 80% 57% +12.4%
all 320 +80.7% +63.5% 80% 57% +12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2183.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.5% 57% +12.4%
10% ← realistic here +47.9% 40% +1.6%
15% +33.6% 29% -8.2%
20% +20.5% 21% -17.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,266.48 · official $12,350.80 · 3500 history records