Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:46:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
4F 0x4ffe…8d97 sports 1462 markets active 1h ago coverage 88d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$238 (+0%) realized +$160 · open +$78
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate70%1022W / 436L
Whale WR87%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$536est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$626
7 days+$742
14 days+$630
30 days−$1,750
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% +$647
crypto 15% −$199
other 7% +$227
weather 1% −$59
finance 0% −$138
politics 0% −$123
tech 0% −$98
world 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-8.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 159 +15.8% +4.8% 72% 63% +0.3%
≤30d 772 -1.6% -10.9% 65% 57% -13.3%
≤90d 1458 +0.7% -8.9% 70% 59% -9.4%
all 1458 +0.7% -8.9% 70% 59% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.9% 59% -9.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.6% 40% -18.0%
15% -25.6% 27% -26.0%
20% -32.9% 17% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 87% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$52 · ×0.43 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$160
Unrealized+$78
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses1022 / 436
Whale WR (big bets)87%
Est. fees paid−$536
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1458 / 1462
History coverage88d ⚠
Avg bet$68
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1458 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 14¢ 33¢ $100 $236 +$136 (+136%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 56¢ 40¢ $202 $144 −$58 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 150 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $387 +$98 +25%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +24%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$3 +27%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $202 +$145 +72%
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $160 +$56 +35%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $289 +$108 +37%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $221 +$59 +27%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $112 +$157 +140%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$4 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 +$2 +19%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $10 +$7 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +14%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $20 +$24 +120%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $10 +$7 +70%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$8 +76%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$5 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$1 +9%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $10 +$2 +18%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $30 +$23 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +5%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$4 +44%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $82 +$32 +39%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $77 +$15 +19%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - European Pro League Jun 18 $58 +$25 +43%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $12 +$7 +62%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $24 +$5 +23%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 P Jun 18 $10 +$3 +26%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 18 to June 20, 2026? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +6%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$2 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $109 −$108 -99%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$2 +16%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $22 +$14 +62%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs KOLESIE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 18 $24 +$13 +54%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Walczaki - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$2 +21%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Cl Jun 18 $20 −$20 -99%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Counter-Strike: JiJieHao vs Phantom - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$14 +133%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $10 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Ursa - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $10 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$3 +33%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 100¢ $485 51m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 72¢ $158 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 63¢ $101 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 86¢ $100 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $347 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 85¢ $128 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 46¢ $102 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 77¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $32 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $5 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $26 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $23 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 51¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner SELL Fire Flux Esports 100¢ $216 3h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 60¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 60¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 60¢ $8 3h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 60¢ $27 3h
United States vs. Australia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 78¢ $10 3h
Counter-Strike: Fire Flux Esports vs NAVI Junior - Map 2 Winner BUY Fire Flux Esports 86¢ $100 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $397 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 89¢ $136 4h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 83¢ $41 4h
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $103 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner SELL Spirit 99¢ $280 6h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 81¢ $120 7h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 74¢ $101 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.04 · official $376.45 (match) · 3500 history records