Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:03:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5000…558e world 39 markets active 2h ago coverage 465d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate42%16W / 22L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% +$1
other 18% −$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 3% $0
politics 2% $0
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -1.8% -11.1% 25% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 19 +3.2% -6.6% 26% 5% -9.1%
≤90d 19 +3.2% -6.6% 26% 5% -9.1%
all 38 -1.2% -10.6% 42% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.1% 3% -18.0%
15% -27.0% 3% -25.9%
20% -34.1% 3% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 73% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.35 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

465d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses16 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage465d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $34 $34 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 21 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $64 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $80 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $31 $0 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 01 $43 $0 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 31 $3 $0 -3%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $60 +$3 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $31 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $33 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $3 +$2 +70%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $32 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Rays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 13 $2 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Jun 24 $10 $0 +2%
Will 'Lilo & Stitch' gross between $160-170m opening weekend? May 28 $1 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 10 $1 $0 +1%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 15 $11 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Malik Beasley win 2024-25 NBA 6th Man of the Year? Apr 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 12 $2 $0 -18%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Apr 09 $12 $0 +0%
Will Frankfurt win the UEFA Europa League? Apr 08 $2 $0 +1%
Will George Russell be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will Hamas enter Israel by Friday? Mar 22 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 20 $1 $0 +6%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $13 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 675-699 times March 14-21? Mar 15 $13 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $34 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $31 45h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $31 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $30 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $31 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $25 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 54¢ $5 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $30 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $33 5d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $33 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 61¢ $2 14d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $9 16d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $28 16d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY No 84¢ $28 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 79¢ $22 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $22 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $5 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 55¢ $23 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $4 17d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 55¢ $26 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 64¢ $30 17d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 65¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $31 18d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $31 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $31 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.73 · official $33.73 (match) · 122 history records