Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5000…6760 world 58 markets active 2h ago coverage 396d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$31 (+0%) realized +$31 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate33%19W / 38L
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$121per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$90now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$9
14 days−$1
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 41% +$45
world 34% −$9
other 23% +$1
economics 1% −$1
politics 1% −$3
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -5.0% -14.0% 30% 0% -10.6%
≤30d 28 -1.5% -10.9% 36% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 40 -1.0% -10.5% 38% 0% -9.6%
all 57 -2.0% -11.3% 33% 2% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 2% -9.1%
10% -19.8% 2% -17.8%
15% -27.6% 0% -25.8%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 60% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×2.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

396d coverage
Net worth$90
Realized+$31
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses19 / 38
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)57 / 58
History coverage396d
Avg bet$121
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $89 $90 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $203 −$9 -4%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $5 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $149 +$4 +3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $13 −$1 -9%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 19 $94 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $6 −$2 -38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $108 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $98 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $28 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $76 +$1 +2%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $43 +$3 +7%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $185 +$11 +6%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $89 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $196 +$1 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $164 −$4 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $31 −$2 -6%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $87 −$3 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 07 $4 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 06 $93 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $92 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 05 $63 −$2 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $4 $0 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $310 −$4 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $106 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $111 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $96 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $18 −$2 -8%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 17 $11 $0 +2%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $743 +$2 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $1,230 −$1 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $385 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $37 −$1 -2%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 22 $706 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $35 +$3 +8%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $18 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by May 15? Apr 21 $219 +$1 +0%
Jaren Jackson Jr.: Rebounds O/U 6.5 Mar 10 $177 $0 -0%
Jonas Valančiūnas: Rebounds O/U 8.5 Mar 10 $138 +$43 +32%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 10 $151 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 09 $137 $0 +0%
Will Lens win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1? Mar 07 $140 −$2 -1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 14 $1 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 26 $44 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $5 −$3 -54%
Will the candidate from the New Reform Party win the South Korean Pres Jun 05 $1 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? May 28 $4 −$2 -52%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $47 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $42 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $19 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $17 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 46¢ $62 4h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $111 7h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 53¢ $95 11h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 51¢ $92 14h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 21h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 22h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 15¢ $59 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 14¢ $55 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $3 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $86 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $8 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $22 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $72 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $94 3d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $94 3d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes $3 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 51¢ $106 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 52¢ $108 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $13 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $15 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $70 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $89.50 · official $89.50 (match) · 229 history records