Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T09:56:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5002…0639 other 35 markets active 1h ago coverage 261d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$39 (+4%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate35%12W / 22L
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$4now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$8
world 27% +$2
finance 3% $0
sports 3% −$1
crypto 3% $0
politics 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.3% -9.2% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 11 +0.6% -9.0% 45% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 12 -7.8% -16.6% 42% 0% -9.3%
all 34 +6.9% -3.2% 35% 6% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 6% -5.7%
10% -12.5% 3% -14.7%
15% -21.0% 3% -23.0%
20% -28.7% 3% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +18% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$0 · ×7.43 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×14.86 per $1 lost it wins $14.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

261d coverage
Net worth$4
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses12 / 22
Open positions1
Markets (closed)34 / 35
History coverage261d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? No 96¢ 98¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $58 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $4 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $31 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $98 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $1 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $28 +$1 +5%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $29 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 11 $13 $0 +2%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Dec 11 $40 +$8 +19%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-23? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $132 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $5 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $40 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $16 −$2 -10%
Will Wolves win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $116 $0 -0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $30 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $47 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Nov 18 $10 +$30 +307%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 18 $6 $0 +4%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 24 $23 $0 +1%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130k in October? Oct 23 $26 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $24 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 72¢ $31 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $31 3h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL No 73¢ $28 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 72¢ $27 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $30 29h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $4 36h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 40h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $1 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $30 15d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 78¢ $31 16d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $9 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $22 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $31 17d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $31 18d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 18d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $34 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $34 18d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 69¢ $10 19d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $10 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $0 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 41¢ $30 20d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 39¢ $28 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3.91 · official $3.91 (match) · 155 history records