Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:57:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x5004…c03a sports 17 markets active 8d ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,203 (-17%) realized −$1,203 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,203
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-21.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +9.0%
≤90d 2 +25.0% +13.1% 50% 50% +9.0%
all 17 -13.7% -21.9% 47% 47% -24.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.9% 47% -24.5%
10% -29.4% 47% -31.7%
15% -36.2% 47% -38.3%
20% -42.5% 35% -44.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 60% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$539) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$345 vs −$440 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$1,203
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage111d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 17 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 15 $10 +$6 +66%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $12 −$2 -17%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 04 $291 +$229 +79%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $403 −$403 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 03 $539 +$331 +61%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 03 $396 −$396 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $452 +$203 +45%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 02 $242 −$242 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 02 $475 −$475 -100%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $635 +$635 +100%
Blues vs. Wild Mar 01 $483 −$483 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $953 +$1,032 +108%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $324 −$324 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $367 +$288 +79%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $72 +$33 +45%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 24 $566 −$566 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $10 7d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $2 43d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $10 43d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $271 111d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $133 111d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $291 112d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $396 112d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $18 113d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $223 113d
Clippers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 49¢ $162 113d
Clippers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 49¢ $313 113d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $91 113d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $448 113d
Blues vs. Wild BUY Wild 69¢ $483 114d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,070 114d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $452 114d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $635 115d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Rockets 60¢ $324 115d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $10 116d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $943 116d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 56¢ $222 118d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 56¢ $145 118d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 39¢ $325 119d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 39¢ $240 119d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Spurs 69¢ $59 119d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Spurs 69¢ $14 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.10 · official $16.10 (match) · 34 history records