Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:38:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x500a…7681 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$91 (+8%) realized +$90 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -37% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -51% what you keep after slip
Net edge-51%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate53%10W / 9L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day84.5pace
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 91% +$179
crypto 9% −$64
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-42.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 -36.7% -42.7% 53% 26% +3.1%
≤30d 19 -36.7% -42.7% 53% 26% +3.1%
≤90d 19 -36.7% -42.7% 53% 26% +3.1%
all 19 -36.7% -42.7% 53% 26% +3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.7% 26% +3.1%
10% ← realistic here -48.2% 16% -6.8%
15% -53.2% 16% -15.8%
20% -57.8% 5% -24.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -37% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$10 · ×2.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.29 per $1 lost it wins $2.29
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$90
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses10 / 9
Open positions4
Markets (closed)19 / 23
History coverage1d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day84.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 19 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 83¢ 84¢ $210 $211 +$1 (+0%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 68¢ $20 $21 +$1 (+5%)
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Yes 6¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-29%)
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $201 +$28 +14%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 23 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -91%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $10 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 +$4 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $166 +$88 +53%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $125 +$20 +16%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $73 +$7 +10%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $5 −$4 -74%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $143 +$54 +38%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $14 −$14 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $10 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $14 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $70 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 2h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $101 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $18 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $49 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 97¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? SELL Yes 96¢ $19 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $20 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 5h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 82¢ $5 6h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 6h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 6h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $151 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $5 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.20 · official $236.20 (match) · 101 history records