Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:43:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
50 0x500a…823d other 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$12 (+62%) realized +$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +169% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +125% what you keep after slip
Net edge+125%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$1per market
Trades / day18.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$1
world 26% +$9
sports 10% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+143.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +169.4% +143.8% 50% 50% +146.7%
≤30d 6 +169.4% +143.8% 50% 50% +146.7%
≤90d 6 +169.4% +143.8% 50% 50% +146.7%
all 6 +169.4% +143.8% 50% 50% +146.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +143.8% 50% +146.7%
10% +120.5% 50% +123.1%
15% +99.2% 50% +101.6%
20% +79.6% 50% +81.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 77% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +173% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +169% · $-wt +173% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.09 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.09 per $1 lost it wins $5.09
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions8
Markets (closed)6 / 14
History coverage1d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-6%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$7 +723%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +424%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $2 +$3 +170%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 2 Jordan? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 2 Algeria? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 1h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $4 7h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 9h
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 10h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 32¢ $8 10h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? SELL Yes 33¢ $5 10h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 99¢ $5 22h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 36¢ $2 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 1 New Zealand? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 25h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 2 New Zealand? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.76 · official $10.76 (match) · 18 history records