Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x500b…68d5
politics · 37 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
+$2 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$2 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$48
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses13 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)36 / 37
History coverage320d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown52%
Kalshi-fit76%
Chart Positions 1 History 36 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 84¢ 84¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $89 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $2 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $55 +$2 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $17 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $31 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $7 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $36 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell over 100k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 23 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $14 $0 +1%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 13 $39 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 12 $42 $0 +0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Aug 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 12 $12 −$1 -9%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 12 $33 $0 +0%
Will Seán Kelly win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 11 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Vladimir Putin in 2025? Aug 11 $42 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Aug 11 $58 $0 +1%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Aug 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Aug 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will GPT-5 be released by December 31? Jul 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 31 $14 $0 +0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jul 30 $75 $0 +0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jul 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 29 $5 $0 -4%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jul 29 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jul 29 $60 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jul 28 $7 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 28 $66 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
politics 29% +$1
world 26% +$2
other 20% −$1
tech 12% $0
sports 9% $0
finance 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $48 1h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $48 4h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $48 6h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 15h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 17h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $12 23h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $10 25h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 5¢ $5 28h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $0 30h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 5¢ $2 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $16 30h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $25 33h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 37h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $12 37h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 64¢ $17 3d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 63¢ $17 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $9 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $16 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $31 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $6 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 59¢ $39 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 59¢ $45 3d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 39¢ $2 4d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 45¢ $36 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 45¢ $36 4d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
≤90d 9 -0.2% -9.7% 33% 0% -8.7%
all 36 -0.3% -9.8% 36% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 0% -9.3%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.0%
15% -26.3% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.79 · official $47.79 (match) · 121 history records