Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T13:29:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x500b…cae4 crypto 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 27d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$835 (+6%) realized +$835 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate72%186W / 73L
Drawdown36%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day20.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$152
7 days+$6
14 days+$215
30 days+$710
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$710
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)-4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 56% -9.0%
≤30d 259 +5.6% -4.5% 72% 71% -4.6%
≤90d 259 +5.6% -4.5% 72% 71% -4.6%
all 259 +5.6% -4.5% 72% 71% -4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.5% 71% -4.6%
10% ← realistic here -13.6% 63% -13.7%
15% -22.0% 41% -22.1%
20% -29.6% 22% -29.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$42 · ×0.48 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

27d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$835
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses186 / 73
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage27d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day20.1
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions (61 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 26 $56 −$54 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 26 $57 +$45 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 26 $51 +$29 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $54 +$35 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 26 $57 +$53 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 26 $95 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 25 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 25 $51 +$27 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 25 $56 +$44 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 25 $45 −$44 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 25 $55 +$27 +49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 25 $56 +$38 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $55 +$30 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 22 $39 −$37 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 22 $42 +$23 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 22 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 22 $54 −$52 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $56 +$39 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $50 −$48 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 17 $56 +$43 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$34 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $56 +$42 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 17 $34 +$15 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $57 +$49 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $54 +$48 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $55 +$35 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$59 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $56 +$46 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $55 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 13 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $55 +$14 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 12 $55 +$23 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 12 $56 +$35 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$34 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $54 +$18 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$35 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 11 $109 −$41 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $55 +$20 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $56 −$55 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 11 $55 +$28 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $55 −$54 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 11 $55 +$19 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 11 $56 +$28 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $54 +$30 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $57 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $24 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $50 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $57 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $15 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $24 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $14 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $40 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $6 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $4 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $16 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 745 history records