Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:33:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x500c…0a6f
crypto · 1795 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,236 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,205 · open −$31
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$346
Realized−$1,205
Unrealized−$31
Win rate (resolved)87%
Wins / losses1560 / 236
Open positions90
Markets (closed)1796 / 1795
Avg bet$27
Trades / day265.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 90 History 1796 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,683
7 days−$1,236
14 days−$1,205
30 days−$1,205
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 94-95°F on June 12? No 69¢ 48¢ $8 $6 −$2 (-29%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 12? No 73¢ 87¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+19%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C or higher on June 14? No 95¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 12? No 91¢ 97¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? No 82¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+16%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? No 88¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+8%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? No 83¢ 95¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+14%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 13? No 94¢ 94¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 13? No 93¢ 94¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on June 14? No 86¢ 94¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 32°C on June 13? No 93¢ 92¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 13? No 90¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 95¢ 88¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 86-87°F on June 13? No 86¢ 92¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? No 86¢ 91¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 13? No 89¢ 91¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? No 90¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on June 13? No 88¢ 90¢ $4 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 14? No 95¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 13? No 91¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? No 94¢ 90¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? No 85¢ 90¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 14? No 85¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? No 84¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? No 88¢ 88¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$6 -2944%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$4 -2713%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -700%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$3 -514%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -944%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -544%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -411%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$11 +3619%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$7 -1922%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -1400%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$5 -1341%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$3 -1522%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 +$3 +1576%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -367%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$17 -9038%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$14 -4212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -589%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -598%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$3 +868%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -471%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$4 -2713%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$9 -4629%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$39 -20795%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -944%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$13 -2100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$9 -5409%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$11 -1664%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$2 -1122%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$29 -7584%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -212%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$6 -1504%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$7 -1041%
Will TSG 1899 Hoffenheim win on 2026-05-02? Jun 12 $0 −$23 -12601%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$17 -11497%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$18 -13427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$9 -1462%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 +$3 +1880%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$4 -2713%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$4 -1139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$5 -2470%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 12 $0 −$1 -722%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$8 -4208%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$5 -2502%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -286%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 99% −$482
weather 1% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 68¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 95¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on June 13? BUY No 75¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 78¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 14? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on June 13? BUY No 85¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 64¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 90¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 14? BUY No 88¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 13? BUY No 83¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 28°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 14? BUY No 86¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY No 61¢ $3 2h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $4 2h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 100¢ $7 3h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 12? SELL No 99¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 84¢ $4 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1578 +7.4% -2.8% 89% 6% -10.7%
≤30d 1796 +6.8% -3.4% 87% 12% -10.6%
≤90d 1796 +6.8% -3.4% 87% 12% -10.6%
all 1796 +6.8% -3.4% 87% 12% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover265.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.4% 12% -10.6%
10% ← realistic here -12.6% 9% -19.1%
15% -21.1% 4% -26.9%
20% -28.8% 1% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $346.50 · official $346.50 (match) · 3500 history records