Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:33:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x500e…6118 sports 300 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1,730 (+5%) realized +$1,731 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate56%167W / 132L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$145est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days+$30
14 days−$78
30 days−$78
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% +$2,002
other 11% −$97
crypto 7% −$255
finance 1% −$143
tech 1% +$86
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.0% -6.8% 42% 42% -5.5%
≤30d 14 -1.6% -11.0% 43% 43% -17.1%
≤90d 153 -9.0% -17.7% 50% 48% -10.2%
all 299 -0.9% -10.4% 56% 55% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 55% -5.8%
10% -18.9% 54% -14.8%
15% -26.8% 47% -23.0%
20% -33.9% 31% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$75 vs −$83 · ×0.9 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$1,731
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses167 / 132
Est. fees paid−$145
Open positions1
Markets (closed)299 / 300
History coverage118d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 299 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$40 +155%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$68 +50%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$81 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Paris (Doubles): Kichenok/Krawczyk vs Aoyama/Liang May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Rei Sakamoto May 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Apr 26 $130 −$128 -99%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 24 $200 −$67 -34%
Rome: Andrea Guerrieri vs Arthur Fery Apr 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Madrid Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Titouan Droguet Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtseva Apr 22 $150 +$85 +57%
Shymkent: Max Wiskandt vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 21 $190 +$113 +59%
Gwangju: Pavel Kotov vs Mikhail Kukushkin Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Rome: Jacopo Vasami vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Apr 21 $15 −$1 -5%
Shymkent: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Samuele Pieri Apr 21 $100 −$15 -15%
Gwangju: James McCabe vs Kaichi Uchida Apr 21 $200 +$71 +36%
Gwangju: Hayato Matsuoka vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 21 $200 +$87 +43%
Oeiras 4: Francesca Jones vs Guiomar Maristany Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Leolia Jeanjean Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Suzan Lamens Apr 20 $100 −$84 -84%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Otto Virtanen vs Titouan Droguet Apr 20 $100 −$49 -49%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nikola Bartunkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Apr 20 $100 +$33 +33%
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Maximus Jones Apr 20 $120 −$15 -13%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Fils Apr 19 $100 +$31 +31%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 19 $150 +$65 +43%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Jack Kennedy Apr 19 $150 +$75 +50%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 18 $150 +$12 +8%
Busan: Alex Bolt vs Yunchaokete Bu Apr 18 $100 +$52 +52%
Wuning 2: Sergey Fomin vs Fajing Sun Apr 18 $100 +$52 +52%
Tallahassee: Clement Tabur vs Tyler Zink Apr 18 $150 +$93 +62%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Iga Swiatek vs Mirra Andreeva Apr 17 $150 −$93 -62%
BMW Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Vit Kopriva Apr 17 $150 +$62 +41%
Barcelona Open: Hamad Medjedovic vs Nuno Borges Apr 17 $100 +$52 +52%
Oeiras 3: Henrique Rocha vs Rei Sakamoto Apr 17 $100 +$57 +57%
BMW Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Alex Molcan Apr 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Karolina Muchova vs Elise Mertens Apr 16 $100 −$28 -28%
Wuning 2: Keegan Smith vs Li Tu Apr 16 $100 +$68 +68%
Barcelona Open: Nuno Borges vs Tomas Etcheverry Apr 16 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 2h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 18h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 21h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $65 39h
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 47h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 47h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 3d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $136 4d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 4d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 32¢ $51 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $113 6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? SELL Yes $21 6d
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $102 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 100¢ $156 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $51 8d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 8d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 9d
Paris (Doubles): Kichenok/Krawczyk vs Aoyama/Liang BUY Kichenok/Krawczyk 66¢ $101 35d
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Rei Sakamoto SELL Alex Molcan 100¢ $141 36d
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Alex Molcan 71¢ $101 36d
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk BUY Jessica Pegula 58¢ $130 54d
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic SELL Ben Shelton 45¢ $133 56d
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic BUY Ben Shelton 67¢ $200 57d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas SELL Stefanos Tsitsipas 67¢ $109 57d
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas BUY Stefanos Tsitsipas 61¢ $100 57d
Madrid Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Titouan Droguet BUY Titouan Droguet 58¢ $50 58d
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtseva SELL Yulia Starodubtseva 100¢ $235 58d
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtseva BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 63¢ $150 58d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.14 · official $99.14 (match) · 637 history records