Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:37:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x500e…bd16 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$702 (+55%) realized +$713 · open −$11
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +59% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +33% what you keep after slip
Net edge+33%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate48%23W / 25L
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$19now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$220
sports 27% +$524
crypto 7% −$28
world 2% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)+43.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 48 +59.0% +43.8% 48% 46% +47.4%
≤30d 48 +59.0% +43.8% 48% 46% +47.4%
≤90d 48 +59.0% +43.8% 48% 46% +47.4%
all 48 +59.0% +43.8% 48% 46% +47.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +43.8% 46% +47.4%
10% +30.1% 42% +33.3%
15% +17.5% 40% +20.4%
20% +6.0% 38% +8.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +63% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +59% · $-wt +63% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +61% → late +57% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$51 vs −$19 · ×2.76 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.54 per $1 lost it wins $2.54
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$19
Realized+$713
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses23 / 25
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage5d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 25¢ 16¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $61 +$2 +2%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $20 +$61 +299%
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 18 $31 +$46 +152%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $66 +$94 +142%
Harry Kane: 1+ goals Jun 17 $30 +$36 +118%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 +$28 +93%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $15 +$109 +711%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$1 -5%
Harry Kane: 1+ assists Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals Jun 17 $20 +$40 +197%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $51 +$84 +165%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$48 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $6 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Michael Olise: 1+ goals Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $36 +$81 +226%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$5 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $67 −$20 -30%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$17 +84%
Tijjani Reijnders: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Ayase Ueda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Daizen Maeda: 1+ goals Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Donyell Malen: 1+ goals Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Jamal Musiala: 4+ shots Jun 14 $20 +$30 +146%
Yan Diomandé: 1+ goals Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Jun 14 $5 +$20 +388%
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $20 +$35 +172%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$22 +109%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $30 −$17 -56%
Kenan Yıldız: 1+ goals Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Arda Güler: 1+ assists Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 +$344 +1765%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 48m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 70¢ $82 49m
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 58m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 80¢ $61 58m
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $41 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 20h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $67 20h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $59 20h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $125 20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 22h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals BUY Yes 39¢ $31 22h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 41¢ $41 22h
Harry Kane: 1+ assists BUY Yes 17¢ $10 22h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY Yes 12¢ $15 22h
Harry Kane: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $30 22h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $30 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 22h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 28¢ $20 24h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ goals BUY Yes 26¢ $20 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $149 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $6 46h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $51 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $5 2d
Erling Haaland: 2+ goals BUY Yes 33¢ $20 2d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $30 2d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 2d
Michael Olise: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $98 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.60 · official $18.60 (match) · 91 history records