Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T00:33:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x500f…94bf sports 402 markets active 2h ago coverage 175d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$35,905 (-2%) realized −$35,905 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate57%231W / 171L
Whale WR65%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4,165per market
Trades / day14.6pace
Fees−$7,935est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,968
7 days−$9,980
14 days−$14,863
30 days−$43,608
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$37,359
other 0% −$2,179
world 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -22.5% -29.9% 46% 46% -24.9%
≤30d 50 +4.0% -5.9% 62% 62% -18.5%
≤90d 115 +1.0% -8.6% 58% 58% -15.1%
all 402 +2.4% -7.4% 57% 56% -11.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.6 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 56% -11.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 55% -19.6%
15% -24.3% 51% -27.4%
20% -31.7% 44% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 65% (≥$4,850) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2,623 vs −$3,775 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

175d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$35,905
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses231 / 171
Whale WR (big bets)65%
Est. fees paid−$7,935
Open positions0
Markets (closed)402 / 402
History coverage175d
Avg bet$4,165
Trades / day14.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 402 Trades
no open positions (73 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $13,945 +$1,712 +12%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $5,515 +$4,322 +78%
Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 5.5 Jun 27 $4,192 −$4,140 -99%
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5) Jun 27 $3,846 +$2,010 +52%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Eu Jun 27 $4,260 +$1,962 +46%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 6.5 Jun 27 $1,168 −$1,153 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5 Jun 27 $610 +$546 +90%
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 26 $1,976 −$1,364 -69%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $1,926 −$1,925 -100%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $1,975 −$1,948 -99%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 1.5 Jun 25 $5,844 −$5,778 -99%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 9.5 Jun 25 $3,611 +$2,233 +62%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Washington Nationals Jun 25 $10,060 −$6,455 -64%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $4,958 −$4,884 -98%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $4,200 −$4,130 -98%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 07 $26,716 −$22,250 -83%
Dota 2: BetBoom Team vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 07 $13,491 +$13,224 +98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 1 Winner Jun 07 $8,005 +$5,486 +68%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $69,248 −$68,248 -99%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $2,361 +$1,741 +74%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $8,024 +$4,431 +55%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $13,416 +$8,661 +65%
Dota 2: Aurora vs LGD Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $10,407 −$10,272 -99%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 06 $2,555 −$1,660 -65%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 06 $33,759 −$31,578 -94%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 06 $1,890 −$1,856 -98%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call of Jun 05 $12,015 +$7,787 +65%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $211 +$141 +67%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 2 Winner Jun 05 $60 +$36 +60%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Game 1 Winner Jun 05 $15,482 +$11,648 +75%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 04 $19,420 +$16,454 +85%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Team Liquid (BO3) - BLAST Slam Playoffs Jun 04 $1,843 +$1,295 +70%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $2,701 +$2,368 +88%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 4 Winner Jun 02 $6,577 +$3,665 +56%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 02 $600 −$598 -100%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs GIANTX (+1.5) Jun 01 $19,016 +$9,505 +50%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $3,758 +$1,683 +45%
LoL: Team Vitality vs GIANTX - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,240 +$759 +61%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $1,751 +$1,428 +82%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner May 31 $7,497 +$3,589 +48%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 2 Winner May 31 $3,457 −$3,411 -99%
LoL: FlyQuest vs Sentinels (BO5) - LCS Playoffs May 31 $16,546 +$11,158 +67%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs Carolina Royal Ravens (BO5) - Call May 30 $1,358 +$664 +49%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 30 $9,663 +$3,294 +34%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winner May 30 $2,500 +$1,830 +73%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 1 Winner May 30 $7,287 −$7,170 -98%
Dota 2: Aurora vs Tundra Esports (BO3) - BLAST Slam Last Chance Qualif May 30 $3,857 −$1,663 -43%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $4,620 +$1,846 +40%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 29 $2,362 +$2,484 +105%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Kiwoom DRX - Game 2 Winner May 29 $11,329 +$8,914 +79%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 89¢ $45 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 89¢ $7,544 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 89¢ $2,032 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 89¢ $1,222 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 89¢ $3,103 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs SELL Acend 100¢ $9,837 1h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $24 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $101 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $12 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $7 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $2,800 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $44 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $55 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $22 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $21 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $34 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $46 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $39 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $19 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $4 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $91 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $3 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $112 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $56 3h
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs BUY Acend 56¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2757 history records