Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T09:14:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x5011…220e
world · 310 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$9,200 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17,841 · open −$605
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$92,296
Realized+$17,841
Unrealized−$605
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses167 / 88
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$33
Open positions63
Markets (closed)255 / 310
Avg bet$3,245
Trades / day103.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%
Chart Positions 63 History 255 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$238
7 days−$9,424
14 days−$18,264
30 days+$17,827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? No 92¢ 92¢ $10,963 $11,007 +$44 (+0%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? No 83¢ 81¢ $7,387 $7,199 −$188 (-3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? No 88¢ 88¢ $7,027 $6,961 −$66 (-1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? No 96¢ 99¢ $5,783 $5,949 +$166 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? No 70¢ 62¢ $6,184 $5,466 −$718 (-12%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Yes 40¢ 46¢ $4,475 $5,166 +$692 (+15%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day? No 97¢ 98¢ $4,959 $5,020 +$60 (+1%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 95¢ $4,696 $4,910 +$215 (+5%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $4,679 $4,800 +$121 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 93¢ 94¢ $2,790 $2,835 +$45 (+2%)
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? No 84¢ 100¢ $2,229 $2,655 +$426 (+19%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? No 96¢ 95¢ $2,203 $2,178 −$24 (-1%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day? No 96¢ 98¢ $1,914 $1,956 +$42 (+2%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 86¢ 88¢ $1,911 $1,955 +$44 (+2%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 93¢ 97¢ $1,860 $1,941 +$81 (+4%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less than $100? No 96¢ 99¢ $1,585 $1,633 +$48 (+3%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? No 55¢ 40¢ $1,852 $1,362 −$490 (-26%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? No 97¢ 98¢ $1,251 $1,262 +$11 (+1%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be between $200 and $250? No 87¢ 79¢ $1,214 $1,104 −$110 (-9%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? No 95¢ 100¢ $993 $1,049 +$57 (+6%)
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 (High)? No 69¢ 66¢ $1,086 $1,046 −$39 (-4%)
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Yes 92¢ 95¢ $917 $953 +$36 (+4%)
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at least $250? No 91¢ 95¢ $909 $952 +$42 (+5%)
Thailand strikes Cambodia by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $906 $924 +$18 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day? No 84¢ 86¢ $840 $857 +$17 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $3,367 +$126 +4%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 12 $146 +$2 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $4,433 +$246 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $3,188 −$3,184 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on Jun 11 $188 +$8 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $2,859 +$131 +5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $3,041 +$385 +13%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 11 $791 +$44 +6%
Will SpaceX's public ticker be another ticker? Jun 11 $2,178 +$2,085 +96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 11 $2,721 +$30 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3,199 +$347 +11%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $65 in June? Jun 10 $746 $0 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $2,204 +$18 +1%
Will SpaceX raise between $70B and $80B in its IPO? Jun 10 $0 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX’s initial public offering occur in June 2026 (ET)? Jun 10 $1,013 +$74 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1,965 +$45 +2%
Will another candidate win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Jerome Powell by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 1? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Will Quantinuum's market cap be between $16B and $19B at market close Jun 10 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Michael Barkley advance from the CA-05 primary election? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 10 $533 −$533 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 10 $927 −$927 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 10 $620 −$620 -100%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 10 $381 −$381 -100%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of Jun 10 $2 −$1 -97%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 10 $333 −$261 -78%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 10 $5,816 +$75 +1%
Israeli forces enter Choukine by June 7? Jun 09 $774 +$72 +9%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 9? Jun 09 $1,462 +$38 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.2T? Jun 09 $2,864 +$42 +2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 09 $5,793 +$126 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June? Jun 09 $870 +$27 +3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 09 $165 +$23 +14%
Will Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals 4-0 be the exact series outcome? Jun 09 $1,701 +$823 +48%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $4,039 +$227 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $1,962 +$23 +1%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $514 +$17 +3%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $3,860 +$133 +4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 08 $880 −$50 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in June? Jun 08 $886 +$2 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $4,880 +$120 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $6,702 −$6,694 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $2,197 −$1,108 -50%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $2,527 −$916 -36%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $2,317 +$205 +9%
Will Batrider be the most banned hero at BLAST Slam VII? Jun 08 $244 +$7 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $4,333 +$97 +2%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June? Jun 07 $50 −$8 -16%
Vance announces he won't run for President in 2028 this year? Jun 07 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 70% −$1,754
tech 8% +$1,388
crypto 7% +$6,599
politics 6% +$5,247
other 3% −$873
finance 3% +$3,117
economics 2% +$2,746
sports 1% +$507
culture 1% +$259
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 97¢ $32 3m
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less SELL No 99¢ $39 35m
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 88¢ $486 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 88¢ $107 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 88¢ $37 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? BUY No 88¢ $250 1h
Will Donald Trump be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' BUY No 97¢ $32 1h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( BUY Yes 86¢ $31 2h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? BUY No 92¢ $920 2h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 78¢ $17 3h
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $7 3h
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 49¢ $10 3h
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 48¢ $143 3h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 78¢ $155 3h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 78¢ $16 3h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 78¢ $140 3h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY No 69¢ $575 3h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 78¢ $16 3h
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be betwe BUY No 78¢ $4 3h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( BUY No 68¢ $377 4h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( BUY Yes 86¢ $7 5h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $11 6h
Pedro Castillo pardoned in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $71 6h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( BUY Yes 86¢ $17 6h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 150 ( BUY Yes 86¢ $86 6h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $888 6h
Will SpaceX IPO on June 12, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,605 7h
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? SELL Up 74¢ $148 7h
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,570 7h
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 250 ( BUY No 92¢ $12 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)+6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 63 -18.1% -25.9% 62% 10% -18.6%
≤30d 249 +19.3% +8.0% 66% 21% -7.7%
≤90d 255 +17.3% +6.2% 65% 21% -7.7%
all 255 +17.3% +6.2% 65% 21% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover103.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.2% 21% -7.7%
10% -4.0% 14% -16.5%
15% ← realistic here -13.3% 11% -24.6%
20% -21.8% 9% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92,295.59 · official $92,295.47 (match) · 3500 history records