Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T02:39:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5012…d2c7 world 82 markets active 2h ago coverage 486d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$22 (-1%) realized −$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate26%21W / 60L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$4
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% −$9
sports 17% −$13
other 16% $0
politics 11% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
finance 1% $0
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.1% -13.2% 29% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 28 -1.2% -10.6% 36% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 77 -0.9% -10.3% 25% 0% -9.8%
all 81 -1.9% -11.3% 26% 1% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 1% -10.2%
10% -19.8% 0% -18.8%
15% -27.5% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.25 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

486d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized−$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses21 / 60
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage486d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $3 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $27 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $14 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $3 $0 -4%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $56 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $46 +$2 +3%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $22 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $29 $0 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $27 $0 -0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $98 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $157 −$5 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $26 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 04 $57 −$1 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $61 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 01 $28 $0 -2%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $30 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 29 $29 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 29 $29 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 29 $63 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 28 $28 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $47 −$3 -6%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $76 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $64 −$1 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 23 $141 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 22 $36 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 20 $33 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $71 $0 -0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $38 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 15 $38 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $2 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $200 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $39 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $35 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $126 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $35 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $75 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $75 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $39 $0 -1%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will FC Cincinnati win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 14 $1 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $35 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $114 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $27 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 10h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $25 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $3 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $27 17h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $11 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $18 34h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $9 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $14 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $14 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $3 2d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $3 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $27 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $27 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $8 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $7 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $14 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $18 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $11 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $17 8d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $14 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.81 · official $27.81 (match) · 349 history records